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Trading29h ago

Kalshi and AppliedXL launch CFTC-regulated biotech prediction markets

Why this matters?

For Kalshi, biotech contracts offer a hedge against the federal sports ban advancing through the Senate. Healthcare verticals generate institutional flow from pharma investors and biotech analysts rather than retail bettors, diversifying revenue beyond the political and sports contracts that dominate volume today.

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Polymarket Mets option spikes to 88.75% in Phillies market

5h ago

Polymarket CLARITY Act odds hit record low 24%, whipsaw to 45% on Senate delay

22h ago

Kalshi traders price France heavy favorite over Spain in World Cup semifinal

2h ago

Jump Trading doubles prediction markets team as volumes surge

29h ago

Latest Trading headlines

Kalshi named to Ad Age Hottest Brands 2026 list

6h ago

Polymarket Fed hike odds hold at 59-60% on jobs report and bond-ETF flows

11h ago

Kalshi traders price 94% odds NYC hits 77-78°F during heat wave

15h ago

Robinhood expands crypto prediction markets with ETH, BTC, Solana, and short-term contracts

17h ago

White House warned staff on prediction market insider trading, study finds

24h ago

JD Vance leads 2028 GOP nomination betting at 42% on Polymarket

27h ago

Kalshi launches GPU compute forward curves for AI infrastructure pricing

33h ago

Kalshi FC prices England and Argentina past Spain for World Cup final probability

37h ago

Robinhood lists XRP, SOL, and back-to-back Bitcoin price prediction markets

38h ago

Kalshi nears $30 billion monthly volume as World Cup drives record trading

38h ago

FanDuel Predicts taps Crypto.com's OG as second exchange partner

40h ago

Polymarket Tesla-SpaceX merger odds cut to 11% for 2026

2d ago

Trading Top Stories

Stanford study ties $8.2M to suspected Polymarket Bitcoin manipulation

The $8.2 million figure transforms vague manipulation suspicions into a concrete, citable loss that forces Polymarket to address settlement architecture or lose traders to competitors with stronger safeguards. Retail traders now face documented proof that ultra-short crypto binaries favor speed advantages over fairness. Kalshi and Robinhood will weaponize this in pitch decks to stress longer-dated alternatives with cleaner settlement mechanics. The CFTC gains a quantified case study for event-contract framework reviews, and any second study or enforcement action would confirm the pattern and accelerate trader migration. Polymarket's reputational risk hardens until it delivers structural fixes.

39h ago

Kalshi plans CFTC-regulated flight cancellation event contracts

Flight cancellation contracts give Kalshi a travel vertical framed as operational hedging rather than wagering. Airlines, travel insurers, and corporate travel managers can now lock in prices against mass disruption rather than absorbing losses. The distinction matters as state attorneys general probe Kalshi's sports markets. For liquidity, the challenge is retail engagement: flight data lacks the partisan energy that drives political contract volume. Each new vertical stretches Kalshi's market-making capacity across sports, compute curves, and travel simultaneously. A thin launch here would confirm that non-sports, non-political verticals struggle to generate prediction-market flow without natural betting interest. A robust one would give institutional backers a defensible hedging use case to cite in regulatory fights.

2d ago

Stanford study quantifies $8.2M in Polymarket Bitcoin contract manipulation

The $8.2 million quantified loss turns manipulation from theory into a measurable market-integrity failure on Polymarket. Retail traders now face documented evidence that settlement design on ultra-short crypto binaries favors speed over fairness. Polymarket must patch settlement timing or risk losing traders to competitors with clearer safeguards. Regulators reviewing event-contract frameworks can cite this as concrete proof that mechanics need intervention. Kalshi and Robinhood will use this in pitch decks to stress longer-dated alternatives. A second study or CFTC action would confirm the pattern and accelerate trader migration. The reputational risk hardens until Polymarket responds with structural fixes.

2d ago

Kalshi self-certifies CFTC flight cancellation contract

Flight cancellation contracts give Kalshi a travel vertical framed as operational hedging rather than wagering. Airlines, travel insurers, and corporate travel managers can now lock in prices against mass disruption rather than absorbing losses. The distinction matters as state attorneys general probe Kalshi's sports markets. For liquidity, the challenge is retail engagement: flight data lacks the partisan energy that drives political contract volume. Each new vertical stretches Kalshi's market-making capacity across sports, compute curves, and travel simultaneously. The CME lawsuit over Kalshi's perpetual futures structure still threatens to force restructuring across all planned markets. A thin launch here would confirm that non-sports, non-political verticals struggle to generate prediction-market flow without natural betting interest. A robust one would give institutional backers a defensible hedging use case to cite in regulatory fights.

3d ago

Allium data shows U.S. wallets lead Polymarket political trading despite access restrictions

The $571 million figure gives the CFTC a concrete dollar amount to cite if it treats U.S. access to the main platform as willful non-compliance rather than a leaky geoblock. For Polymarket, that reframes its federal registration of the separate U.S. exchange from a shield into potential evidence of systemic gaps on the primary site. The platform is already defending staged-bet allegations and a Google engineer insider-trading case, and this data adds a third thread to the same question: whether its surveillance and identity controls match the scale of its markets. Any CFTC finding that U.S. volume reflects inadequate compliance would force immediate operational restructuring, likely stricter identity verification or reduced contract availability, just as competitors like Kalshi press their regulatory advantage.

12d ago

Anonymous Polymarket user bets $400,000 on Putin exit by year-end

This wager tests whether Polymarket's recently built institutional liquidity can absorb concentrated directional risk outside of sports, where DRW, Wintermute, and IMC have already demonstrated capacity during the World Cup. A $400,000 political bet from a new account with no track record forces market makers to price assassination, coup, and succession risk in a thin information environment. If the position clears without widening spreads, it signals that Polymarket's liquidity backbone is venue-agnostic and can support event-contract expansion into geopolitics and other non-sports verticals. For competitors like Kalshi, it raises the bar for matching cross-category depth. Polymarket, repeated whale clearance in unstructured markets converts tournament-proven infrastructure into a permanent liquidity advantage that attracts institutional desks permanently rather than seasonally.

14d ago

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Frequently Asked Questions

What is a prediction market?

A prediction market is an exchange where users buy and sell contracts that pay out based on the outcome of a real-world event, like an election, a Fed rate decision, or a sports game. The contract price reflects the crowd-implied probability of the event happening. The biggest US-regulated venues are Kalshi, ForecastEx, and Polymarket.

How do I trade on Kalshi?

Open an account at kalshi.com, deposit US dollars by ACH or debit card, and place limit or market orders on any listed contract. Kalshi is regulated by the CFTC and operates as a Designated Contract Market, so funding and identity verification follow normal US brokerage standards.

How do prediction market prices work?

Yes/no contracts trade between 1 and 99 cents and pay $1 if the underlying event happens, $0 if it does not. The price is the market’s implied probability — a contract trading at 65 cents means the market is pricing the event at roughly 65% likely.

Can you actually make money on prediction markets?

Yes, but the data shows the long tail loses money. A 2025 Wall Street Journal analysis of Polymarket found that roughly 70% of users were unprofitable and the top 0.1% captured most of the gains. Edge usually comes from domain expertise — sports, politics, or macro data — combined with disciplined sizing.

Are prediction market winnings taxed?

In the US, profits from CFTC-regulated event contracts are generally treated as ordinary income or short-term capital gains depending on holding period; Kalshi and ForecastEx issue 1099s. Polymarket trades settle in USDC and US users are responsible for tracking their own basis. Talk to a tax professional for your situation.

What is the difference between Kalshi and a sportsbook like DraftKings?

A sportsbook sets the odds and takes the other side of your bet; Kalshi runs an exchange where you trade against other users at prices the order book sets. DraftKings now distributes Kalshi event contracts inside its app, but those are exchange contracts, not traditional sports bets.