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Trading7h ago

Kalshi and Polymarket volume falls 15% in August, first monthly drop in a year

Why this matters?

The first monthly volume decline in a year tests whether prediction markets have reached a natural ceiling or are simply between event cycles. Traders allocate capital around major tournaments, and the World Cup's absence exposes how dependent total flow is on sporadic mega-events.

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Polymarket prices Democratic midterm sweep at 51%, diverging from Kalshi

8h ago

Polymarket S&P 500 sentiment flips from bearish to bullish in three days

4h ago

Prediction markets top $11B weekly volume as Kalshi takes 90.4% share

17h ago

Kalshi and Polymarket odds favor Markey over Moulton in Massachusetts Senate primary

14h ago

Latest Trading headlines

Robinhood expands crypto prediction markets to HYPE, SOL, and Dogecoin

1h ago

Robinhood adds 15-minute XRP prediction market with multiple clearing partners

14h ago

Kalshi courts institutional traders on CME and Cboe's home turf

19h ago

Polymarket Rays contract surges 25 points in one hour

33h ago

Polymarket intel chief says platform ready to fight misconduct before midterms

40h ago

Polymarket and Kalshi post conflicting Anthropic IPO probabilities

45h ago

Polymarket US files to list Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana price contracts

5d ago

Polymarket traders price Nvidia earnings-beat odds at 97-98% ahead of results

6d ago

Polymarket traders raise Anthropic model-release odds to 81% by mid-September

7d ago

Kalshi and Bitnomial win CFTC approval for Bitcoin perpetual futures

7d ago

Kalshi and Polymarket launch AI compute futures to capture AI trading demand

8d ago

Kalshi traders price Bitcoin year-end below $80K despite 20% rally

8d ago

Trading Top Stories

Kalshi files for stock index and copper perpetual futures with CFTC

Kalshi's perpetual futures filing squeezes the economics of every incumbent exchange operator. CME Group and Cboe Global Markets saw their shares react to the news, because a CFTC-approved no-expiry contract on 500 large-cap US companies would siphon retail leverage demand that currently feeds their dated index futures. For traders, the product would offer continuous exposure without the roll costs and expiry friction of traditional futures. The timeline is tight: Kalshi's Bitcoin perpetual approval drew a CME lawsuit in June, so equity index perps will face immediate legal and regulatory pressure. Kalshi clears this filing faster than rivals can build similar products, it captures a structural shift in how retail and institutional desks access leveraged equity exposure. The first mover gets to set the margin and fee template that others must match or undercut.

12d ago

Novig posts $125 million in first-week sports prediction market volume

Novig's opening pace rewrites the liquidity benchmark for new regulated prediction markets. The volume forces Kalshi and Polymarket to respond faster on sports contract expansion and user retention. Novig's converted sportsbook user base gives it a distribution headstart that pure-play prediction markets must buy or build. The 21 million daily contract average sustains pressure on rivals to match depth or lose market makers to the deeper venue. Sustained growth through the NFL season would entrench Novig as the default sports prediction market. Its five-state preemption lawsuits add a parallel legal advantage if federal courts validate the strategy. Rivals now face compressed timelines on two fronts: trading features and geographic legal shields.

7d ago

Baltimore sues Kalshi and Polymarket, adding Coinbase, Robinhood and Webull

The Baltimore suit names distribution partners, not just platforms. Coinbase, Robinhood, and Webull now face direct consumer-protection exposure for listing sports event contracts they do not themselves design. That reshapes the risk calculus for every broker-dealer and exchange considering similar listings. A city-level loss could embolden other municipalities to file copycat suits, multiplying legal venues beyond the state attorneys general already active. For Kalshi and Polymarket, partner defections become a real risk if settlement costs look cheaper than defense. Traders holding open sports contracts face fresh geographic uncertainty: a Baltimore injunction would not bind other jurisdictions, but it would signal that municipal courts may join the pile-on. The platforms must now defend on two fronts — state preemption arguments and municipal consumer protection claims — with each front able to void local trading independently. A partner pullout, even without a final judgment, would cut distribution and volume faster than any single platform ruling.

14d ago

Kalshi signs exclusive, multi-year deal as official prediction market partner of US Open

The US Open exclusivity locks in tournament-level inventory that rivals cannot access for the contract's full term. Kalshi now controls the only federally regulated prediction market tied to a Grand Slam event, a marketing edge in user acquisition against DraftKings Predicts, Robinhood Derivatives, and Novig. The ESPN broadcast ban on rival advertising amplifies that advantage: competitors cannot match Kalshi's court-side visibility during the sport's largest US audience. This mirrors Kalshi's MLB stadium strategy, where official partner status drives sign-ups in states that block sportsbooks. Each exclusive sports deal raises the stakes in Kalshi's state court fights. An attorney general injunction against Kalshi contracts in a key market would simultaneously void the marketing spend and the tournament exclusivity that justified it.

46h ago

Kalshi and Polymarket traders price Paramount-Skydance deal at roughly 1-in-4 failure odds

The Paramount-Skydance pricing shows prediction markets pricing M&A completion risk in real time, a category traditional derivatives rarely cover. For Kalshi and Polymarket, entertainment merger contracts test whether institutional hedgers will treat event contracts as tradable alternatives to CDS or equity options, or remain in the speculator-only pool. Thin flow in prior media deals suggests these prints may drift on noise; traders cannot verify depth because neither platform publishes fillable orders or post-trade size. A validated bid in this contract would signal prediction markets can compete with bank-run risk-arb products. Until then, the 25% failure print functions more as a sentiment gauge for media investors than a hedging rate they can execute against.

15d ago

Polymarket adds TWAP settlement and $1M rewards for crypto prediction markets

Polymarket's TWAP switch directly closes the 30-second window that let traders spike prices and drain millions in prior incidents. Short-duration crypto contracts now resolve against a harder-to-manipulate average, restoring integrity for traders holding near-expiration positions. The $1 million liquidity reward targets the thin order books that made manipulation profitable in the first place. This self-policing move is timed against multiplying regulatory threats: a Senate bill would ban sports event contracts, and state attorneys general have already pierced federal preemption shields elsewhere. Polymarket cannot control which regulator acts first, but it can deny them an easy integrity complaint. Chainlink's oracle infrastructure is available to rivals too, so the advantage is temporary. The platform that settles most reliably will keep sophisticated traders as federal scrutiny intensifies.

24d ago

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Frequently Asked Questions

What is a prediction market?

A prediction market is an exchange where users buy and sell contracts that pay out based on the outcome of a real-world event, like an election, a Fed rate decision, or a sports game. The contract price reflects the crowd-implied probability of the event happening. The biggest US-regulated venues are Kalshi, ForecastEx, and Polymarket.

How do I trade on Kalshi?

Open an account at kalshi.com, deposit US dollars by ACH or debit card, and place limit or market orders on any listed contract. Kalshi is regulated by the CFTC and operates as a Designated Contract Market, so funding and identity verification follow normal US brokerage standards.

How do prediction market prices work?

Yes/no contracts trade between 1 and 99 cents and pay $1 if the underlying event happens, $0 if it does not. The price is the market’s implied probability — a contract trading at 65 cents means the market is pricing the event at roughly 65% likely.

Can you actually make money on prediction markets?

Yes, but the data shows the long tail loses money. A 2025 Wall Street Journal analysis of Polymarket found that roughly 70% of users were unprofitable and the top 0.1% captured most of the gains. Edge usually comes from domain expertise — sports, politics, or macro data — combined with disciplined sizing.

Are prediction market winnings taxed?

In the US, profits from CFTC-regulated event contracts are generally treated as ordinary income or short-term capital gains depending on holding period; Kalshi and ForecastEx issue 1099s. Polymarket trades settle in USDC and US users are responsible for tracking their own basis. Talk to a tax professional for your situation.

What is the difference between Kalshi and a sportsbook like DraftKings?

A sportsbook sets the odds and takes the other side of your bet; Kalshi runs an exchange where you trade against other users at prices the order book sets. DraftKings now distributes Kalshi event contracts inside its app, but those are exchange contracts, not traditional sports bets.