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Trading12h ago

SpaceX retakes lead on Polymarket for 2026's biggest IPO

Why this matters?

Polymarket traders now anchor 2026 IPO expectations to a $2.1 trillion SpaceX debut, a figure that shapes sentiment across the platform's corporate-event lineup. That number becomes the reference point for valuation markets on pre-IPO companies like the SpaceX valuation market for October 2026 Polymarket listed days ago.

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Kalshi Tesla-SpaceX merger odds climb to 60% after Barclays note

22h ago

Kalshi and Polymarket price Texas Senate race with Talarico favored over Paxton

25h ago

Midterm prediction market trading tops $750M as watchdog projects $1.6B

13h ago

Polymarket traders cut Bitcoin $77,500 October target to 36%

19h ago

Latest Trading headlines

Polymarket traders price 31% odds S&P 500 hits 8,000 by year-end

10h ago

Robinhood lists SOL price prediction market for Oct 16, 2026

28h ago

Polymarket Fed hike odds swing from 20% to 66% and back as CPI print whipsaws prediction markets

30h ago

Kalshi adds Ballotpedia data as election markets top 21,000 industry-wide

31h ago

Polymarket traders score 900% gain on Tesla Roadster flight contract

2d ago

Kalshi traders double October Fed hike odds to 40% after inflation data

2d ago

Polymarket offers $500K in liquidity rewards for League of Legends Worlds 2026 markets

3d ago

Former theater director Brian Golden tops Kalshi economic-indicator trading

3d ago

Polymarket midterm election volume crosses $220 million amid regulatory pressure

3d ago

Polymarket Bitcoin $80K odds spike to 72%, Kalshi sees 20% chance at $100K

3d ago

Prediction markets post record $78.2B monthly volume on four straight weekly highs

4d ago

Kalshi and Polymarket diverge sharply on Guilfoyle exit odds

4d ago

Trading Top Stories

Kalshi crypto volume faces wash-trading scrutiny as estimates diverge sharply

Kalshi now faces two simultaneous credibility tests that feed each other. The crypto volume allegations join the platform's existing dispute over whether combination bets inflate headline event-contract figures. Traders use volume to size liquidity risk before committing capital; persistent questions push them toward venues with cleaner data. Kalshi's executive response offered no published methodology to resolve the gap. The CFTC reviews perpetual-futures filings with heightened attention to surveillance standards. Competitors with sharper disclosure can scoop migrating flow during the NFL season. Kalshi's first-mover advantage in regulated crypto derivatives turns fragile if it cannot produce audited, single-event numbers faster than rivals can match its product suite. Whoever publishes verified volume first will set the transparency bar the rest must clear.

26d ago

Kalshi and Polymarket hit $8.56 billion two-day NFL weekend volume

The record volume exposes how dependent both platforms are on multi-leg football products that sit at the center of state gambling disputes. More than 70% of Kalshi's Saturday flow came from parlays and combination bets, the exact contract structures that Ohio and Tennessee courts have already subjected to state gambling laws. That concentration means volume records and legal vulnerability rise together. Kalshi and Polymarket must now defend the same products generating their headlines, while state attorneys general elsewhere have a ready template to copy. The platforms that cannot quickly restructure or geofence these offerings face parallel suits in multiple jurisdictions. Superior combo pricing from sportsbooks already threatens Kalshi's pricing edge, and any contract redesign to satisfy state courts could erase the parlay volume driving these numbers. The operator that loses another major state case first sets the compliance bar every competitor must clear.

4d ago

Polymarket odds leap to 70% on Anthropic Fable launch by October 17

The 36-point overnight repricing forces holders of later-dated October 24 and October 31 contracts to decide whether to roll into the nearer date or absorb time decay. Polymarket now runs three overlapping Fable contracts with staggered deadlines and subtly different version triggers, fragmenting liquidity across what is already a thin speculative layer. Traders face oracle ambiguity if Anthropic releases a version that satisfies one contract's terms but not another's. Anthropic itself must navigate public price signals it cannot control, with trader sentiment now pricing precise launch windows. Anthropic's October training pause sits at 40% on Polymarket, adding a second conflicting signal the company must manage. The platform that becomes the reference price for AI timeline bets will attract the next wave of structured product volume.

3d ago

Anthropic IPO odds shift to December on Polymarket after prospectus leak

The December repricing forces traders holding November exposure to reassess position sizing or roll into later-dated contracts. For Anthropic, the market itself becomes an alternative data source that management cannot ignore: traders are effectively voting with capital on whether the $518 billion commitment load accelerates or delays a debut. The Nasdaq preference adds venue-specific risk, since an NYSE choice would zero that side of the contract. Portfolio teams using Polymarket as a signal must now disentangle three variables — timing, venue, and the separate best-model contract — that trade independently but get quoted as a single narrative. The prospectus leak is confirmed via Reuters reporting, so the December-IPO prices rest on verified details.

17d ago

Kalshi weekly volume hits 2026 high of $15.27B with first $3B day

The $15.27 billion weekly print and first $3 billion day cement Kalshi's volume lead among CFTC-registered prediction-market venues. For traders, the milestone signals deep enough liquidity to support larger position sizes without slippage that plagued earlier quarters. The PitchBook valuation range of $23 billion to $42 billion gives institutional backers a fresh benchmark to justify secondary-market interest. Yet the volume concentration matters: Kalshi still routes through FanDuel's market-making seat for its busiest events, so any partner pivot or CFTC presentation crackdown could thin order books precisely when rivals like Polymarket and Novig are gaining football share. The platform must convert this volume surge into sticky trader relationships before NFL seasonality fades, or risk proving that record weeks are borrowed liquidity rather than owned demand.

23d ago

Polymarket hit with $600 million in flagged post-election wash trades

Polymarket's political book absorbs real events slowly, so $600 million in suspect volume after the fact signals a surveillance gap that traders can exploit. Wash trading in resolved markets does not shift odds meaningfully, but it inflates reported volume and draws retail entrants who mistake activity for opportunity. For traders, the lesson is blunt: post-resolution contracts may carry fake liquidity that dries up exactly when you need to exit. Polymarket now faces pressure to close or delist zombie markets faster, since every hour of delay widens the window for manipulation. The platform's credibility as a real-time barometer depends on whether it can police this before regulators or competitors like Kalshi make it a selling point against offshore venues.

28h ago

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Frequently Asked Questions

What is a prediction market?

A prediction market is an exchange where users buy and sell contracts that pay out based on the outcome of a real-world event, like an election, a Fed rate decision, or a sports game. The contract price reflects the crowd-implied probability of the event happening. The biggest US-regulated venues are Kalshi, ForecastEx, and Polymarket.

How do I trade on Kalshi?

Open an account at kalshi.com, deposit US dollars by ACH or debit card, and place limit or market orders on any listed contract. Kalshi is regulated by the CFTC and operates as a Designated Contract Market, so funding and identity verification follow normal US brokerage standards.

How do prediction market prices work?

Yes/no contracts trade between 1 and 99 cents and pay $1 if the underlying event happens, $0 if it does not. The price is the market’s implied probability — a contract trading at 65 cents means the market is pricing the event at roughly 65% likely.

Can you actually make money on prediction markets?

Yes, but the data shows the long tail loses money. A 2025 Wall Street Journal analysis of Polymarket found that roughly 70% of users were unprofitable and the top 0.1% captured most of the gains. Edge usually comes from domain expertise — sports, politics, or macro data — combined with disciplined sizing.

Are prediction market winnings taxed?

In the US, profits from CFTC-regulated event contracts are generally treated as ordinary income or short-term capital gains depending on holding period; Kalshi and ForecastEx issue 1099s. Polymarket trades settle in USDC and US users are responsible for tracking their own basis. Talk to a tax professional for your situation.

What is the difference between Kalshi and a sportsbook like DraftKings?

A sportsbook sets the odds and takes the other side of your bet; Kalshi runs an exchange where you trade against other users at prices the order book sets. DraftKings now distributes Kalshi event contracts inside its app, but those are exchange contracts, not traditional sports bets.