Subscribe
Data

World Cup final drives billions in bets on Kalshi and Polymarket

The $29 billion combined World Cup haul proves Kalshi and Polymarket can settle sportsbook-scale volume without the state licensing fees that burden DraftKings and FanDuel. For traders, that cost advantage is the draw; for regulators, it is the threat. The bipartisan Senate bill threatening a federal sports contract ban now has live evidence of market scale to target, and a Tobin-style transaction tax would compress the very retail participation that drove these numbers. Kalshi's ad campaign positioning itself as a sportsbook alternative sharpens the political target. The platforms that survive this legislative window will do so by self-regulating before Congress acts, not by outspending the gambling lobby.

9h ago
Data

Study: Kalshi macroeconomic markets produce valuable real-time forecasts

The SSRN paper gives Kalshi empirical ammunition for its core legal argument that prediction markets serve genuine economic utility rather than gambling. State attorneys general and the CFTC are weighing whether event contracts deserve lighter treatment than sportsbooks. A peer-reviewed finding that Kalshi's macro markets forecast accurately bolsters the case that traders are price-discovery participants, not bettors. That distinction matters now because Michigan, New York, and other states are pressing gambling-law claims that would force Kalshi into expensive licensing or geofencing. A documented forecasting record helps Kalshi's lawyers argue the product belongs under CFTC jurisdiction alone, not fifty state regimes. The study's timing is tactical: Kalshi faces a Second Circuit appeal and multiple state enforcement actions where empirical claims about market usefulness carry weight. Polymarket gains collateral benefit from any precedent that secures federal-only oversight, since it faces identical state-level exposure.

8h ago

Frequently Asked Questions

How accurate are prediction markets as forecasts?

Liquid markets calibrate well — implied probabilities track actual outcomes closely on elections, macro data, and major sports. Thin or late-resolving contracts calibrate worse. Multiple academic studies have found prediction markets at least match and often outperform polling on election forecasting.

Are prediction markets better than polls?

On most US presidential elections since 1988, prediction-market prices have tracked the final outcome more closely than poll averages, especially in the final weeks. Polls remain stronger on demographic breakdowns and turnout questions; prediction markets aggregate everyone’s information into one price.

Where can I get prediction market data?

Kalshi, Polymarket, and ForecastEx all publish public APIs with live pricing and volume. Third-party aggregators like Adjacent News and Manifold collect cross-venue. Settlement data is published end-of-day through standard exchange channels.

What is Polymarket’s daily trading volume?

Polymarket runs the highest peak volumes on individual political events, sometimes clearing hundreds of millions of dollars on a single contract during US election cycles. Daily volume varies widely; the Data section tracks weekly volume reports as they’re published.

What is calibration in prediction markets?

Calibration measures how well market-implied probabilities match actual outcome frequencies. A perfectly calibrated market has 70-cent contracts resolving "yes" exactly 70% of the time. Most academic studies find liquid prediction markets are within a few percentage points of perfect calibration.

Are prediction markets used as macro indicators?

Yes. ICE has called Polymarket data a key macro indicator, and macro research desks at major banks now reference Kalshi prices on Fed decisions, jobs prints, and CPI alongside survey data.