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Data

University of Iowa's Iowa Electronic Markets helped spawn Polymarket and Kalshi

This genealogy matters because prediction-market platforms now borrow academic credibility to fend off political and regulatory attacks. Polymarket and Kalshi both face hostile state attorneys general and skeptical lawmakers who paint event contracts as unvetted gambling. Iowas 38-year track record lets them point to a federally supervised university experiment as precedent. That history becomes talking points in hearings and briefs. The timing is not accidental: Kalshi published its own accuracy study days ago, and an academic paper on Polymarket spreads dropped the day before this report. Platforms are weaponizing scholarship faster than opponents can frame it as industry advertising. The university gains nothing directly, but its brand now sits inside the regulatory argument.

2d ago
Data

Kalshi Research analyzes 2.2 million data points to test prediction market accuracy

This study matters most for Kalshi's regulatory defense, not its marketing. Congress and the CFTC are scrutinizing whether event contracts produce manipulable prices or genuine forecasts. Kalshi now has self-generated evidence that its markets calibrate well. That empirical asset becomes ammunition when lawmakers cite prediction-market failures as reason to restrict trading. The timing is tight: Baltimore's suit arrived the same week, and state attorneys general are already active. Kalshi must get this data into the hands of sympathetic regulators and researchers before opponents frame it as self-serving. A peer-validated follow-up would carry more weight than an internal blog post, but speed matters more than perfection when hearings are being scheduled.

12d ago

Frequently Asked Questions

How accurate are prediction markets as forecasts?

Liquid markets calibrate well — implied probabilities track actual outcomes closely on elections, macro data, and major sports. Thin or late-resolving contracts calibrate worse. Multiple academic studies have found prediction markets at least match and often outperform polling on election forecasting.

Are prediction markets better than polls?

On most US presidential elections since 1988, prediction-market prices have tracked the final outcome more closely than poll averages, especially in the final weeks. Polls remain stronger on demographic breakdowns and turnout questions; prediction markets aggregate everyone’s information into one price.

Where can I get prediction market data?

Kalshi, Polymarket, and ForecastEx all publish public APIs with live pricing and volume. Third-party aggregators like Adjacent News and Manifold collect cross-venue. Settlement data is published end-of-day through standard exchange channels.

What is Polymarket’s daily trading volume?

Polymarket runs the highest peak volumes on individual political events, sometimes clearing hundreds of millions of dollars on a single contract during US election cycles. Daily volume varies widely; the Data section tracks weekly volume reports as they’re published.

What is calibration in prediction markets?

Calibration measures how well market-implied probabilities match actual outcome frequencies. A perfectly calibrated market has 70-cent contracts resolving "yes" exactly 70% of the time. Most academic studies find liquid prediction markets are within a few percentage points of perfect calibration.

Are prediction markets used as macro indicators?

Yes. ICE has called Polymarket data a key macro indicator, and macro research desks at major banks now reference Kalshi prices on Fed decisions, jobs prints, and CPI alongside survey data.