Frequently Asked Questions
Are prediction markets legal in the United States?
Yes — federally regulated event contracts are legal under CFTC oversight. Kalshi, ForecastEx, and Polymarket’s US arm operate as licensed Designated Contract Markets. Several states have challenged sports event contracts under state gambling law, but federal courts have so far sided with the federal frame.
Are sports event contracts legal?
They trade on CFTC-regulated venues today, but multiple states (New Jersey, Nevada, Maryland, Massachusetts, others) have argued they are sports betting under state law. Kalshi has won preliminary federal injunctions blocking enforcement in those cases. The legal frame is moving — the Legal section on this page tracks every ruling as it lands.
Can you bet on elections in the US?
Yes. After Kalshi won a federal court ruling in 2024, election event contracts have traded on US-regulated venues. Polymarket also re-opened to US users in 2025 via its QCEX acquisition.
What is the CFTC and what does it do?
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission is the US federal regulator for derivatives markets, including event contracts. It licenses Designated Contract Markets like Kalshi and reviews self-certified contracts for compliance with the Commodity Exchange Act.
Has Kalshi been sued?
Yes — multiple state regulators (New Jersey, Nevada, Maryland, Massachusetts, others) issued cease-and-desist orders against Kalshi’s sports markets, and Kalshi has counter-sued in federal court arguing federal preemption. Federal courts have granted Kalshi preliminary injunctions in the major cases to date.
Are prediction markets considered gambling?
Federal law treats CFTC-regulated event contracts as derivatives, not gambling. Some state regulators disagree, particularly on sports contracts, and that disagreement is what most prediction-markets litigation is about.