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Legal5h ago

US appeals court rules Kalshi sports contracts fall outside CEA swaps definition

Why this matters?

Kalshi must now geofence additional states or restructure its sports offerings to comply with state gambling statutes. The ruling strips away another piece of the federal shield the platform leaned on to operate nationwide under CFTC oversight alone.

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Court rules Kalshi sports contracts subject to Tennessee gambling laws

1h ago

Sixth Circuit rules states can regulate Kalshi, handing win to horse racing interests

15m ago

New York and Polymarket file dueling lawsuits over state gambling authority

37h ago

Sixth Circuit rules Kalshi sports contracts subject to Ohio and Tennessee gambling laws

5h ago

Latest Legal headlines

Arizona AG Mayes asks 9th Circuit to lift injunction blocking Kalshi gambling case

3h ago

Kalshi asks Trump administration to help attract more big bettors

5h ago

CFTC exempts non-custodial prediction market software from broker registration

5h ago

NCPG executive director Maurer resigns after Kalshi deal fallout

9h ago

Kalshi CEO calls for federal guardrails after Sixth Circuit lets states regulate

33h ago

Freakonomics Radio episode explores Kalshi's regulatory fight with state gambling regulators

36h ago

Ninth Circuit classifies Kalshi sports contracts as IGRA class III gaming on tribal lands

37h ago

Missouri AG Hanaway orders six platforms to halt sports event contracts

2d ago

CFTC warns 'mention market' contracts carry manipulation risk

2d ago

OG.com files for CFTC approval to offer single-stock perpetual futures

3d ago

Crypto.com and Robinhood petition Supreme Court to settle sports event contract preemption

3d ago

Missouri AG orders Polymarket, Kalshi, and four other platforms to halt sports event contracts

4d ago

Legal Top Stories

Kalshi issues first lifetime ban to George Santos over State of the Union bets

The Santos penalty fixes the price of a first offense at $71,356 plus permanent exile, giving every CFTC-registered venue a concrete benchmark. For Polymarket and ForecastEx, the choice is now assemble similar detection and enforcement speed or become the soft target regulators single out next. Politically connected traders with advance knowledge of speeches, votes, or appearances can no longer assume platform anonymity will survive a post-trade review. Kalshi's three-case arc turns self-policing from a talking point into a replicable playbook. Congress and state attorneys general now have hard evidence to demand industry-wide adoption. Platforms without comparable public expulsion records risk looking negligent by comparison.

23d ago

Kalshi asks CFTC to approve margin trading on event contracts

Margin approval would let Kalshi compete directly with brokerage options accounts that already offer leveraged equity exposure. Robinhood already drives the largest prediction-market revenue stream of any retail brokerage, and its users expect margin as standard. Without it, Kalshi risks looking like a toy inside a real trading app. The filing's scope matters for ForecastEx and Polymarket too: whichever platform first cracks margin rules for event contracts will set the collateral and eligibility template rivals must match. CFTC delay is the central threat. Every month without approval lets offshore venues keep their leverage advantage intact. A parallel Sixth Circuit ruling allowing Ohio and Tennessee to regulate Kalshi adds state-level friction that could complicate any national margin rollout. The first platform to win margin approval likely hardens a first-mover advantage that shapes sector fee and leverage standards for years.

3d ago

Ninth Circuit blocks Kalshi sports contracts on two California tribal lands

The Ninth Circuit has now rejected Kalshi's federal preemption theory twice in one month, after the Nevada ruling. Each new loss invites more tribal suits. Kalshi must geofence two additional jurisdictions while lower courts reconsider the merits. Robinhood faces identical exposure because the same reasoning reaches any platform offering sports-linked contracts on tribal lands. Traders hold positions whose validity shifts with geography, not regulation. The Supreme Court remains Kalshi's only path to uniform rules. Legal spend compounds across parallel cases faster than any single resolution. Every month of delay risks another tribe filing through the opening.

5d ago

Michigan judge orders Kalshi to geofence state or pay $500K daily in sports contracts fight

Kalshi must now geofence Michigan alongside Nevada, shrinking the territory where its CFTC registration protects sports contracts. Each state loss emboldens more attorneys general to file parallel actions. Connecticut already sued. New Jersey petitioned the Supreme Court. Kalshi's legal spend compounds across multiple fronts while its national market fragments. Traders hold positions whose legality shifts at state borders. A Supreme Court ruling could unify the rules, but that timeline stretches across months of uncertainty while state bans accumulate. Platforms with stronger state gambling licenses will absorb displaced volume until a federal resolution lands.

23d ago

Kalshi suspends and fines N.C. GOP candidate Laurie Buckhout for self-trading

Each new politically connected trader Kalshi expels raises the surveillance speed rivals must match. Polymarket and ForecastEx still lack comparable public enforcement records against candidate self-trading. Regulators and lawmakers now have concrete precedent to demand replication across every CFTC-registered venue. Platforms without similar detection look negligent by comparison. The fixed template is platform exile first, regulatory filing second. Buckhout's three-year bar and fine set the standard for what self-policing must look like in political event contracts. Kalshi's mounting record strengthens its position before Congress and state attorneys general. Competitors must stand up similar surveillance or become the soft target singled out next.

26d ago

New York sues Kalshi over alleged illegal gambling

Kalshi's federal preemption defense is now under assault in New York by name, not just by analogy to other states. The suit joins Ohio, Tennessee, Missouri, and Connecticut in rejecting or testing the argument that CFTC registration blocks state gambling laws. For Kalshi, each new front forces a choice between costly state-by-state legal battles and an even costlier Supreme Court cert petition. Coinbase and Gemini face parallel exposure as named defendants under the same state-gambling theory. Traders on all three platforms hold positions whose legality may shift with state borders. The first state to secure an injunction would set the compliance template rivals must meet. Legal spend compounds faster than any single case resolves.

5h ago

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Frequently Asked Questions

Are prediction markets legal in the United States?

Yes — federally regulated event contracts are legal under CFTC oversight. Kalshi, ForecastEx, and Polymarket’s US arm operate as licensed Designated Contract Markets. Several states have challenged sports event contracts under state gambling law, but federal courts have so far sided with the federal frame.

Are sports event contracts legal?

They trade on CFTC-regulated venues today, but multiple states (New Jersey, Nevada, Maryland, Massachusetts, others) have argued they are sports betting under state law. Kalshi has won preliminary federal injunctions blocking enforcement in those cases. The legal frame is moving — the Legal section on this page tracks every ruling as it lands.

Can you bet on elections in the US?

Yes. After Kalshi won a federal court ruling in 2024, election event contracts have traded on US-regulated venues. Polymarket also re-opened to US users in 2025 via its QCEX acquisition.

What is the CFTC and what does it do?

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission is the US federal regulator for derivatives markets, including event contracts. It licenses Designated Contract Markets like Kalshi and reviews self-certified contracts for compliance with the Commodity Exchange Act.

Has Kalshi been sued?

Yes — multiple state regulators (New Jersey, Nevada, Maryland, Massachusetts, others) issued cease-and-desist orders against Kalshi’s sports markets, and Kalshi has counter-sued in federal court arguing federal preemption. Federal courts have granted Kalshi preliminary injunctions in the major cases to date.

Are prediction markets considered gambling?

Federal law treats CFTC-regulated event contracts as derivatives, not gambling. Some state regulators disagree, particularly on sports contracts, and that disagreement is what most prediction-markets litigation is about.