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Stocks10d ago

BofA upgrades DraftKings to Buy, sees $400M prediction market fee upside

Why this matters?

The upgrade matters because it signals a shift in how Wall Street prices DraftKings stock: analysts are treating prediction market growth as additive revenue instead of a threat to sportsbook margins. DraftKings CEO Robins has been pushing this exact reframing for ten days, but investors kept selling on regulatory headlines and Kalshi's 76% NFL volume lead.

Read more

PitchBook values Kalshi at $30.4B with $42B Supreme Court upside

23d ago

Jefferies warns DraftKings spending on prediction markets is pressuring earnings

2d ago

Polymarket private shares surge 670% in a year to $137.70

12d ago

Galaxy Research: 69% of retail Polymarket accounts lost money

12d ago

Latest Stocks headlines

Robinhood CEO Tenev says crypto predictions will outpace sports betting on platform

14d ago

Crypto.com adds prediction market prices and charts to US platform

15d ago

JPMorgan backs both Sportradar and Genius Sports on prediction market growth

17d ago

Polymarket accounts for 83.6% of Polygon's $37 million protocol revenue

19d ago

JPMorgan sets $8 target on Genius Sports, flags prediction-market upside

22d ago

DraftKings prediction platform could reach $1B by December, analyst says

25d ago

Stocks Top Stories

DraftKings drops up to 7.6% as Kalshi's 76% NFL volume lead stokes spending fears

DraftKings must now spend heavily to close a 76-point share gap against Kalshi while its stock sits near three-year lows. That squeeze forces a choice: burn cash on marketing and product to rescue DKeX, or accept relegation to a niche player in event contracts. Investors have already voted with sell orders on both paths. FanDuel's competing response — market-making for Kalshi while building FanDuel Predicts — shows the industry splitting between partnership and direct competition. The platform that achieves better combo pricing by mid-season could flip share, but DraftKings' margin for costly bets is shrinking as fast as its stock price.

11d ago

Robinhood CEO Tenev predicts crypto contracts will outpace sports bets

Robinhood's $156 million Q2 prediction-market revenue already tops crypto and equities, so Tenev's forecast hardens Wall Street's pricing of the stock above $145 around this single vertical. The pivot to crypto contracts reduces dependence on sports offerings that face active litigation and state bans, including Connecticut's halt order. Robinhood routes volume through Kalshi, the Rothera joint venture, and now Crypto.com and OG.com; any partner dispute forces immediate migration. Piper Sandler's $320 million football-season projection still sets Q3-Q4 expectations, so crypto volume must offset lost sports contract revenue if state actions spread. A second partner concentration failure after the August volume dip would test whether traders stick with a platform that owns no direct CFTC designation. Kalshi and other licensed venues can pitch infrastructure stability to traders weary of platform-hopping. The first platform to prove sticky retail volume outside NFL seasonality will reshape every competitor's revenue model.

23d ago

Bybit, Bitget, and HTX launch Polymarket pre-IPO perpetual contracts

Every new exchange listing tightens the vise on CFTC-registered rivals. Kalshi, ForecastEx, and Robinhood Predicts cannot offer comparable leverage inside U.S. rules; the CFTC caps their product design while offshore venues hand traders 20x. The gap hardens a two-tier market where price discovery happens on unregulated rails and regulated venues import it second-hand. Kalshi's September 4 oil-perpetual filing was a bid to close that gap under full registration, but each offshore listing makes the regulatory path look slower. If pre-IPO Polymarket volume clusters on Bybit and HTX, the CFTC sites risk becoming liquidity backwaters for the tokenized prediction-market trade. Traders will price that asymmetry into venue choice.

23d ago

DraftKings doubles down on prediction markets as stock hits worst month since January

DraftKings must prove that its DKeX push can close the volume gap with Kalshi. Kalshi handled 76% of sports prediction-market trading in the NFL’s opening week while DKeX accounted for 3%. Every dollar DraftKings spends on the exchange faces investor skepticism that already clipped its share price this year. If Kalshi’s lead hardens through the NFL season, DraftKings may have to follow FanDuel into a supplier role rather than compete head-on. The next earnings call must show DKeX volume growing faster than spending, or the stock risks another leg down.

15d ago

Cathie Wood's ARK buys Kalshi shares across three ETFs, trims Brera

Ark's three-fund purchase turns Kalshi from a private-market curiosity into an ETF-held name with daily mark-to-market discipline. That exposes Kalshi to Ark's redemption-driven volatility, but also gives the prediction-market platform a valuation anchor that RBC Capital's forecast of incumbents benefiting from disruptors including Kalshi and Polymarket can now cite in M&A conversations. Traditional exchanges weighing event-contract entry get a comparable: Kalshi's private-market clearing price, multiplied by Ark's known cost basis. Kalshi itself, the stake validates its CFTC-regulated model against unregistered competitors, yet ties its narrative to Ark's own performance. If prediction-market volume slips this quarter, Wood's funds will trim as mechanically as they bought, and Kalshi will have no lock-up to slow the exit.

25d ago

Tema's DICE ETF launches as first prediction-markets fund with pre-IPO Kalshi, Polymarket stakes

DICE turns a structural barrier into a product feature. Retail investors who cannot directly hold Kalshi or Polymarket equity get packaged access through a single ticker, with Robinhood and Coinbase adding public-market liquidity. The fund's pitch rests on owning infrastructure rather than betting outcomes, a framing that sidesteps the retail-loss optics haunting platforms like Polymarket. Tema, timing matters: prediction markets are breaking into mainstream finance just as regulators and state attorneys general intensify scrutiny. If the CFTC's swap-rule push fails and state gambling designations spread, DICE's private-company valuations could compress faster than its public holdings. The fund's success will test whether Wall Street prices prediction-market infrastructure as a diversified bet or a concentrated regulatory gamble.

12d ago

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Frequently Asked Questions

Which stocks have prediction-markets exposure?

Direct exposure: Robinhood (NASDAQ: HOOD) and DraftKings (NASDAQ: DKNG) both list Kalshi event contracts inside their apps. Interactive Brokers (NASDAQ: IBKR) acquired ForecastEx outright. Indirect exposure runs through Sportradar, several listed gaming names, and crypto-adjacent equities.

Is Kalshi publicly traded?

No, Kalshi is private. Investors include Sequoia Capital, Charles Schwab, Henry Kravis, and Citadel’s Ken Griffin. Secondary trades have priced Kalshi in the multi-billion-dollar range.

Is Polymarket publicly traded?

No. Polymarket is private and has raised funding from Founders Fund, Vitalik Buterin, and others. Its 2025 acquisition of QCEX gave it a US footprint but did not create a public listing.

Does Robinhood make money from prediction markets?

Robinhood earns fees on Kalshi event contract trades inside its app. Robinhood has called out prediction markets as a contributor to user engagement and trading revenue in earnings calls; the exact revenue split with Kalshi is not publicly disclosed.

Should I buy DraftKings stock for prediction-markets exposure?

DraftKings (NASDAQ: DKNG) has a Kalshi distribution deal and has cited prediction markets in earnings commentary, but its core business remains state-licensed sports betting and iGaming. Whether prediction markets move the stock depends on the size of the contract revenue, which DraftKings has not separately disclosed.

Is there a prediction markets ETF?

No US-listed ETF tracks prediction markets specifically. Investors get exposure today through individual stocks (HOOD, DKNG, IBKR) or through private-market vehicles. The Stocks section flags any new listed product as it surfaces.