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Stocks2h ago

Polymarket bettors price 88% odds on Rocket Lab drop to $64

Why this matters?

Polymarket's bearish pricing on Rocket Lab creates a reputational test for prediction markets as equity signals. If the 88% odds prove wrong, traders and media outlets will cite the miss to question whether event contracts reliably forecast stock moves.

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24d ago

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19d ago

Latest Stocks headlines

Robinhood lists March 2027 Fed rate decision event contract

2d ago

Kalshi markets price 84% odds JPMorgan earnings call covers trading and M&A

5d ago

Robinhood stock rally spotlights event-contract and Bitstamp volume acceleration

9d ago

Michael Burry buys Flutter, DraftKings shares, warns prediction markets face regulation

9d ago

Prospect Prediction Markets exercises all outstanding warrants

18d ago

Rick Rubin stars in Polymarket's global TV ad campaign

21d ago

Robinhood calls event contracts its fastest-growing product line

24d ago

Stocks Top Stories

Cboe launches S&P 500 prediction market suite for Schwab and Interactive Brokers

Schwab's 39 million accounts give Kalshi and Polymarket their first rival with existing retail scale and brokerage trust. Cboe's regulated options plumbing lets Schwab skip the CFTC registration slog that slowed earlier entrants.

24d ago

Robinhood event-contract volume reportedly one-quarter of Kalshi's

The volume gap frames Robinhood as Kalshi's largest CFTC-registered competitor rather than a dependent partner. Robinhood's shift from routing through Kalshi to its native Rothera infrastructure severs a revenue-sharing pipeline where each platform earned 1 cent per contract. Robinhood's prediction market revenue does surpass cryptocurrency as forecast, Kalshi loses its biggest retail distribution channel and must rebuild flow just as dedicated market-maker desks arrive. The $2.5 million spike on Robinhood's own exchange suggests that migration has begun; Kalshi's $40 billion valuation now depends on proving it can replace that lost volume with institutional flow or alternate retail partnerships.

19d ago

Robinhood routes World Cup event contracts to CFTC-licensed Rothera

Robinhood's shift to Rothera cracks the Kalshi exclusivity that has defined its event-contract business. For two years, every Robinhood trade cleared through Kalshi's exchange; now Robinhood controls the full stack via its co-owned JV. That vertical capture mirrors Novig wins CFTC approval to operate Exchange as designated contract market, the same month. DraftKings made the same move with DKeX. The three platforms that once white-labeled now own their rails. For Kalshi, the loss of Robinhood order flow stings at the worst moment: a Senate bill threatens to ban sports contracts outright, and state enforcement is spreading. Rothera's $2 billion debut month is meaningful, but Robinhood's 23 million funded accounts give it a distribution base most CFTC exchanges cannot match. The question is whether Rothera can hold liquidity and spreads at volume without Kalshi's established market-making relationships. If it can, Robinhood becomes a regulated rival to DraftKings rather than a Kalshi front end. If it cannot, the retreat to white-labeling will be costly and public.

3d ago

Robinhood prediction market revenue set to surpass crypto in second quarter

The revenue crossover transforms Robinhood from a crypto and equity app into a prediction-markets native venue with its own CFTC-registered exchange infrastructure. For Kalshi, the stakes are structural: Robinhood's Rothera platform has already displaced the revenue-sharing arrangement where each party earned 1 cent per contract, and Kalshi must now replace that lost retail flow with institutional volume or new partnerships. The $200 million annualized pace gives Robinhood the capital to outspend dedicated prediction-market rivals on marketing, market-maker incentives, and product expansion just as DRW, Wintermute, and IMC are building liquidity desks for the sector. Platforms without a built-in brokerage audience face a steeper user-acquisition curve, and the first operator to lose market-maker support to Robinhood's larger order book will find spreads widening at the worst possible moment.

19d ago

Robinhood other transaction revenue hits $147M in Q1, driven by event contracts

The $104 million quarter turns Robinhood's prediction-markets experiment into a permanent revenue line. For two years, Robinhood white-labeled through Kalshi's exchange and shared the economics; now it routes through co-owned Rothera and keeps the full stack. That vertical capture mirrors Rothera Exchange wins CFTC approval to operate as designated contract market, the same month. The 23 million funded accounts give Robinhood a distribution base that lets it outspend rivals on product expansion and marketing. Kalshi must replace that lost retail flow with institutional volume or new partnerships, just as a Senate bill threatens to ban sports contracts and state enforcement spreads. If Rothera holds liquidity at scale without Kalshi's established market-making relationships, Robinhood becomes a regulated rival rather than a front end. If spreads widen, the retreat to white-labeling will be costly and public.

2d ago

Cboe launches Cboe Predicts prediction markets suite

Cboe Predicts introduces a direct rival to Kalshi and Polymarket from an incumbent exchange with existing CFTC relationships and retail distribution. The move reshapes competition: Cboe can offer event contracts inside a familiar brokerage ecosystem rather than asking users to open accounts at standalone prediction-market venues. Kinahan's team has months to build liquidity and user habit before competing exchange launches close the first-mover window. For Kalshi and Polymarket, the threat is not just lost volume but platform commoditization if major exchanges treat event contracts as a feature, not a business model. Cboe's success would validate the sector for Wall Street and accelerate consolidation pressure on pure-play operators.

8d ago

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Frequently Asked Questions

Which stocks have prediction-markets exposure?

Direct exposure: Robinhood (NASDAQ: HOOD) and DraftKings (NASDAQ: DKNG) both list Kalshi event contracts inside their apps. Interactive Brokers (NASDAQ: IBKR) acquired ForecastEx outright. Indirect exposure runs through Sportradar, several listed gaming names, and crypto-adjacent equities.

Is Kalshi publicly traded?

No, Kalshi is private. Investors include Sequoia Capital, Charles Schwab, Henry Kravis, and Citadel’s Ken Griffin. Secondary trades have priced Kalshi in the multi-billion-dollar range.

Is Polymarket publicly traded?

No. Polymarket is private and has raised funding from Founders Fund, Vitalik Buterin, and others. Its 2025 acquisition of QCEX gave it a US footprint but did not create a public listing.

Does Robinhood make money from prediction markets?

Robinhood earns fees on Kalshi event contract trades inside its app. Robinhood has called out prediction markets as a contributor to user engagement and trading revenue in earnings calls; the exact revenue split with Kalshi is not publicly disclosed.

Should I buy DraftKings stock for prediction-markets exposure?

DraftKings (NASDAQ: DKNG) has a Kalshi distribution deal and has cited prediction markets in earnings commentary, but its core business remains state-licensed sports betting and iGaming. Whether prediction markets move the stock depends on the size of the contract revenue, which DraftKings has not separately disclosed.

Is there a prediction markets ETF?

No US-listed ETF tracks prediction markets specifically. Investors get exposure today through individual stocks (HOOD, DKNG, IBKR) or through private-market vehicles. The Stocks section flags any new listed product as it surfaces.