Robinhood event-contract volume reportedly one-quarter of Kalshi's
An X post claims Robinhood's event contracts trade at roughly one-quarter of Kalshi's volume. Robinhood (HOOD) has traded $5.2 billion in event contracts with five days left in June, according to a separate post. A tier-4 analysis expects Robinhood's prediction market revenue to surpass its cryptocurrency revenue; its Kalshi partnership charges customers 2 cents per contract, split evenly. A newer X post flags a surge to $2.5 million on Robinhood's own CFTC-licensed exchange, a Susquehanna joint venture that had previously routed through Kalshi.
The volume gap frames Robinhood as Kalshi's largest CFTC-registered competitor rather than a dependent partner. Robinhood's shift from routing through Kalshi to its native Rothera infrastructure severs a revenue-sharing pipeline where each platform earned 1 cent per contract.
Robinhood's prediction market revenue does surpass cryptocurrency as forecast, Kalshi loses its biggest retail distribution channel and must rebuild flow just as dedicated market-maker desks arrive. The $2.5 million spike on Robinhood's own exchange suggests that migration has begun; Kalshi's $40 billion valuation now depends on proving it can replace that lost volume with institutional flow or alternate retail partnerships.
Robinhood's $2.5 million spike on its native Rothera infrastructure builds on the breakout weekend that drove 15% of total platform volume during the World Cup, as the brokerage accelerates its shift from Kalshi-dependent routing to in-house clearing.