Bernstein analyst sees Robinhood prediction market revenue quadrupling to $586M in 2026
Bernstein analyst Chhugani projects Robinhood's prediction market revenue will jump from $150 million in 2025 to $586 million in 2026, nearly a fourfold increase in one year. The forecast, issued ahead of the World Cup, identifies event contracts as Robinhood's largest incremental revenue driver for 2026. The analyst cites the global soccer tournament as a catalyst that will draw retail trading interest to Robinhood's event-contract products. The projection helped lift Robinhood's stock price. Bernstein also noted rising competition in the sector, with Polymarket launching contracts on private company events.
The $586 million forecast gives Robinhood a concrete revenue case to accelerate its Rothera clearing build-out and reduce reliance on Kalshi's infrastructure. Any sustained migration of World Cup volume to Rothera will force Kalshi to rebuild its retail flow pipeline just as institutional market makers arrive.
Bernstein becomes the third Wall Street research shop to tie Robinhood's prediction-market business to its stock, after Cantor and Deutsche Bank, turning event-contract revenue into a line item sell-side analysts now model rather than a novelty.