Bernstein raises Robinhood target to $160 on prediction market growth
Bernstein raised its price target on Robinhood to $160 on July 20, citing the company's push into prediction markets as a revenue driver set to surpass crypto. Robinhood continues to distribute Kalshi's event contracts to customers while steering users toward its own Rothera exchange, which launched event contracts in May. The 'frenemy' dynamic reflects growing competitive tension as Robinhood builds proprietary infrastructure. Multiple content farms and niche sites simultaneously published Kalshi explainers between July 18 and July 19.
The $160 target locks in prediction markets as Robinhood's core valuation story. That pressures Robinhood to accelerate Rothera development and pull liquidity building in-house faster. Kalshi and ForecastEx still power much of Robinhood's event-contract traffic today. Every new Rothera listing reduces the incentive to share fees with outside partners.
The 64% growth projection through 2028 gives Robinhood leverage to internalize economics rivals now collect. Competing exchanges must secure alternative distribution before Rothera scales or accept that Robinhood's 27.4 million accounts will eventually generate that volume for its own rails.
Bernstein's $160 target marks the second major analyst upgrade this week pegging Robinhood's valuation to prediction-market revenue, after Goldman Sachs set a $137 benchmark days earlier.