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Deals17h ago

Kalshi launches My Ballot with Ballotpedia for personalized 2026 midterm data

Why this matters?

The Ballotpedia integration turns Kalshi's Midterms Hub into a voter-facing product that converts politically curious browsers into active traders. That audience expansion matters because Kalshi's political event contracts face state-level scrutiny in multiple jurisdictions, and public familiarity with its pricing changes the political cost of enforcement.

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Crypto.com rolls out OG.com prediction tools on its own platform

5h ago

Furnace raises $3.5M seed for prediction market infrastructure

46h ago

Polymarket weighs IPO against native token launch amid $20B valuation talks

3d ago

SEC approves Cboe's KPI event contracts with Robinhood retail fee waiver

3d ago

Latest Deals headlines

FanDuel Predicts launches with CME Group as exchange venue in 18 states

2d ago

Hacksaw expands into prediction markets with B2B platform and Malta license

2d ago

Kalshi partners with U.S. Black Chambers to offer risk management for Black-owned businesses

2d ago

Kalshi pairs with Signify Group to monitor athlete abuse on event contracts

3d ago

ProphetX partners with Juice Reel to integrate CFTC-regulated prediction markets

3d ago

Reask to supply settlement data for ForecastEx live hurricane contracts

3d ago

High Roller Technologies hires prediction markets veteran Flip Pidot as chief business officer

4d ago

CryptoStruct integrates with OG.com for algorithmic trading on regulated markets

4d ago

Underdog CEO tells IG investors what $1.3B buys in prediction markets

8d ago

Ronald Acuña Jr. becomes first MLB player to promote prediction market with Kalshi deal

9d ago

Polymarket CEO says ICE is one of its biggest shareholders

10d ago

Cboe and Robinhood to launch KPI event contracts in October

10d ago

Deals Top Stories

Novig hits $2B valuation but remains far behind Kalshi and Polymarket

Kalshi's $40 billion price tag turns Novig's $2 billion into pocket change, and venture returns will flow to the leader that can absorb losses longest. Novig's Sydney Sweeney equity deal was built to close that awareness gap without matching Polymarket's $15 million annual cash payout to LeBron James, but the valuation spread suggests investors are not convinced it worked. Novig now faces a deploy-or-die choice: pour fresh capital into NFL season user acquisition to prove the Sweeney model converts, or watch Kalshi and Polymarket set the cost structure everyone else must match. The first platform to publish funded-account numbers off its celebrity campaign will determine whether equity-for-endorsement deals survive the next funding cycle. Novig stays silent, contingent-pay talent structures die with it.

16d ago

Four tribes launch Kalshi-powered prediction apps in California and Oklahoma

The partnership fractures the tribal unity that casinos and state attorneys general have relied on in court. Four tribes now operate sovereign-branded prediction apps using Kalshi's exchange infrastructure, even as more than 140 tribes oppose the model. For Kalshi, each tribal deal complicates the narrative it must defend in Ohio, Tennessee, and Michigan courts where state gambling laws are already eroding its federal preemption shield. Sovereign immunity may place these apps outside direct state reach, but the first state challenge to cross-border tribal app traffic will set precedent every partner watches. The rupture also weakens the casino industry's claim to speak with one tribal voice in lobbying and litigation. Kalshi gains distribution channels that do not depend on state licensure, but builds them on a divided foundation that regulators and rival platforms will exploit.

3d ago

Kalshi in talks to raise $1 billion at $40 billion valuation led by Sequoia, Wellington

Every venture dollar that flows to Kalshi at this price is a dollar not available to Polymarket, Novig, or Robinhood's partner-dependent stack. Sequoia and Wellington's co-lead signals that top-tier firms now treat CFTC-registered event contracts as a winner-take-most category, not a speculative side bet. Kalshi's war chest would fund margin-trading expansion, state-by-state legal defense, and celebrity marketing to match Polymarket's $15 million LeBron James deal. Novig's parallel $2 billion target suddenly looks thin by comparison, and Robinhood's equity stakes in Crypto.com and OG.com bring no direct regulatory license to compete. The first platform to deploy fresh capital into NFL season user acquisition will set the cost structure everyone else must match or exit.

17d ago

Polymarket hires Goldman Sachs veteran Lisa Mantil to lead institutional growth

Mantil's hiring puts a traditional finance dealmaker at the center of Polymarket's push for institutional capital. Her Goldman Sachs network opens doors to market makers and asset managers that have treated prediction markets as a retail novelty. The platform needs that credibility to convert its QCEX regulatory license into actual trading volume from regulated desks. Kalshi has already captured Coinbase's prediction market integration and filed for margin trading; Polymarket risks losing institutional share without matching pipeline speed. Mantil's success will be measured by whether major trading firms begin clearing size through QCEX rather than treating Polymarket as an experimental venue. The window is narrow: each month of stalled institutional onboarding erodes the competitive value of its 2025 regulatory investment. Failure to land flagship Wall Street relationships would relegate QCEX to a costly regulatory shell while rivals build integrated product stacks.

17d ago

Kalshi targets roughly $40B valuation in $1B pre-IPO round

Kalshi's $40 billion price tag turns every venture dollar in prediction markets into a scarcity play. Sequoia and Wellington's reported co-lead signals that top-tier firms now treat CFTC-registered event contracts as winner-take-most, not a side bet. That leaves Novig's $2 billion valuation and Robinhood's partner-dependent stack fighting for the scraps. Kalshi's war chest would fund margin-trading expansion and state legal defense. The first platform to deploy fresh NFL season capital sets the user-acquisition cost structure everyone else must match or exit. Novig's equity-for-endorsement model with Sydney Sweeney now faces a direct test against Polymarket's $15 million annual cash payout to LeBron James. Either marketing structure survives the next funding cycle based on conversion data this quarter alone.

14d ago

Polymarket valued at $21bn in $1bn round led by Trump Jr.'s 1789 Capital

The $21 billion tag lands just below Kalshi's $40 billion ask earlier this year, turning a funding gap into a direct arms race. For Polymarket, the money must close two deficits at once: Kalshi's larger balance sheet and its faster sports-vertical rollout this football season. Trump Jr.'s firm is itself leveraging the Polymarket halo to triple its second-fund target to $3 billion, so both parties are using each other's momentum to reprice upward. The $1 billion in fresh capital gives Polymarket room to match Kalshi's market-making depth or fund a comparable sports product sprint. If the spend goes to brand rather than liquidity, Kalshi's $750 million head start in raw capital will widen the spread advantage that determines where institutional flow lands. Jenson's recent hire as CFO suggests the board wants disciplined capital deployment, not logo buys. The next quarterly volume figures will show which platform converted funding into sticky market share.

23d ago

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Frequently Asked Questions

Who owns Kalshi?

Kalshi is a private company founded in 2018 by Tarek Mansour and Luana Lopes Lara. It has raised funding from Sequoia Capital, Charles Schwab, Henry Kravis, Citadel’s Ken Griffin, and others; it is not publicly traded.

Did DraftKings buy Kalshi?

No. DraftKings has a distribution deal that lists Kalshi event contracts inside the DraftKings app — Kalshi remains an independent CFTC-regulated exchange. DraftKings (NASDAQ: DKNG) and Kalshi are separate companies.

When did Polymarket relaunch in the US?

Polymarket re-opened to US users in 2025 after acquiring QCEX, a CFTC-licensed Designated Contract Market. Before the acquisition, Polymarket geo-blocked US users following a 2022 CFTC settlement.

Who acquired ForecastEx?

Interactive Brokers (NASDAQ: IBKR) acquired ForecastEx outright. The acquisition gave Interactive Brokers a CFTC-licensed event-contracts venue plumbed directly into its brokerage platform.

How much is Kalshi worth?

Kalshi is private and does not disclose a public valuation. Its most recent disclosed funding round and reporting on subsequent secondary trades have implied a valuation in the multi-billion-dollar range; the Deals section tracks each new round and secondary as it surfaces.

Is there a prediction markets IPO coming?

No US-listed pure-play prediction markets company has filed for IPO as of mid-2026. Kalshi and Polymarket are private; ForecastEx now trades inside Interactive Brokers. The Deals section flags any S-1 or registration statement the moment it lands.