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EU warns prediction markets off-limits to retail under MiFID II

3h ago

Polymarket adds live Valorant esports and MLS soccer markets for July 2026

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Robinhood lists BTC, ETH, and HYPE crypto prediction markets across three partner exchanges

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Americans lead Polymarket political betting with $571 million despite U.S. restrictions

13h ago

Kalshi faces multi-state gaming regulator challenges despite CFTC federal status

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Senators press CFTC as investigation widens into Polymarket fake-bet campaign

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Top Stories

ESMA warns EU retail ban already covers prediction market event contracts

For Kalshi and Polymarket, ESMA's warning erects a European regulatory wall without any new lawmaking. The regulator's binary-options framing means retail bans already on the books could block expansion into the EU's 448 million consumers before a single license application is filed. Kalshi's reported $22 billion valuation assumes geographic growth beyond the United States; a frozen European retail market forces a reliance on institutional or professional-client carveouts that shrink the addressable base. The platforms must now argue product-by-product that their contracts are not binary options, or pursue wholesale MiFID II compliance, either of which bleeds resources from their American legal defense against state gambling suits and CFTC preemption litigation in Kentucky and Minnesota. A European class-action or national enforcement trigger would make this a three-front war.

Senate bill would ban sports event contracts on CFTC-regulated prediction markets

Kalshi and Polymarket now face a pincer movement: the CFTC's June 10 proposal would broadly permit sports event contracts, but congressional passage of the Schiff-Curtis bill would override that permission entirely. The 45-day comment window on the CFTC rule is their only formal chance to shape the regulatory baseline before lawmakers potentially vote. Congress strips sports contracts from the CFTC perimeter, both platforms lose their most traded vertical and must retool toward politics, economics, and crypto events where spreads are thinner and volume is lower. The legislative threat also weakens their position in pending state preemption fights — Minnesota and Kentucky can point to Capitol Hill momentum as evidence that even federal regulators lack secure jurisdiction.

Allium data shows U.S. wallets lead Polymarket political trading despite access restrictions

For Polymarket, the $571 million figure turns a compliance blind spot into a live regulatory vulnerability. U.S. political flow at this scale makes it harder to argue that geoblocks are working, and it gives the CFTC a concrete dollar amount to cite if it chooses to press on access enforcement or settlement integrity. The platform's recent institutional market-making upgrades from DRW, Wintermute, and IMC were built for size, but they now risk being tested by unscreened U.S. users rather than vetted offshore professionals. If the CFTC treats this as evidence of willful non-compliance, Polymarket's federal registration becomes a sword instead of a shield, forcing a choice between stricter identity controls and accepting reduced volume.

Michigan judge orders Kalshi to halt sports contracts for 14 days

The sports-only blackout forces Kalshi to geofence Michigan wagers immediately, shrinking revenue from a state where it had been active. Judge Aquilina's willingness to enjoin a CFTC-registered platform before any merits ruling gives other state attorneys general a faster playbook than waiting for federal preemption. Kalshi is already defending parallel actions in Illinois, Minnesota, Kentucky, New Mexico, and Massachusetts; each new front demands separate legal budgets and product restrictions. The 14-day window is short, but a second state copying Michigan's pre-merits injunction would confirm that state courts can outpace federal appeals. Platforms now face a patchwork survival test: afford every fight simultaneously or retreat market by market.

Kalshi and Polymarket June volume surges 75% to $45 billion on World Cup betting

For Kalshi and Polymarket, the $45 billion month is the first live stress test of whether prediction markets can absorb sportsbook-scale liquidity without settlement cracks or spread blowouts. That outcome determines whether Bernstein's thesis—that major financial incumbents acquire the infrastructure—moves from research note to board agenda. The volume also arrives while both platforms fight state-level bans and tax battles, giving regulators a concrete measure of the market's scale just as they weigh gambling-label arguments. A clean World Cup settlement clears the path for NFL and Olympics verticals; any fraud or payout dispute hands state attorneys general their sharpest exhibit yet.

CNBC analysis finds most Polymarket contracts trade under $10,000

For Polymarket, the 70% low-volume finding is a direct challenge to its institutional pitch at a moment when DRW, Wintermute, and IMC are building dedicated desks for the platform. Those market makers need depth across a broad range of contracts to justify their infrastructure spend; a sea of sub-$10,000 markets signals the opposite. The risk is segmentation: high-profile events like the World Cup or Swift-Kelce weddings absorb liquidity and attention, while everything else becomes a desert. Polymarket cannot seed participation in its long tail, it remains a venue for headline moments rather than a continuous trading surface. That distinction matters for valuation talks and for whether those institutional desks deepen their commitment or pull back to Kalshi's more diverse verticals.

Plus500 adds Kalshi sports contracts as Ninth Circuit hears appeal

Plus500's integration makes Kalshi's sports contracts available to a broader retail pool just as the Ninth Circuit weighs whether those contracts survive at all. A ruling against Kalshi would force Plus500 to delist the product and strand its U.S. traders on a venue with no replacement offering. The timing is particularly sharp because Kalshi is already defending its sports vertical on multiple fronts: state regulators in Michigan and Utah are pressing parallel challenges, and a Senate bill would ban sports event contracts entirely. For Plus500, the upside is first-mover access to regulated sports prediction markets; the downside is building a product line atop a legal foundation that may crumble before year-end. The platform's risk is Kalshi's risk multiplied across every distributor now white-labeling its contracts.

Prediction markets hit $50 billion monthly volume as state bans multiply

The $50 billion milestone gives Kalshi and Polymarket live proof that event contracts can match sportsbook scale, but every state victory against them turns that growth into a liability. The Michigan injunction and Minnesota felony ban show state attorneys general can force geofencing before federal preemption is settled, and Illinois's 15% tax erodes margins if copied elsewhere. Kalshi is already juggling five simultaneous state fights, each burning separate legal budgets and threatening market-by-market retreat. For traders, the risk is stranded positions in states that flip suddenly. For Bernstein's acquisition thesis, the platforms must prove they can keep volume rising while their U.S. maps shrink, or the liquidity credential becomes a stranded-asset story.

Michigan regulator quits NCPG over Kalshi partnership

The NCPG split forces every state gaming regulator to choose sides: align with the established nonprofit framework or boycott it once it admits CFTC-registered prediction markets as partners. Kalshi, the loss of NCPG credibility in Michigan compounds its legal isolation there, stripping away a Gaming stamp it may need to show other state courts. Polymarket faces the same vulnerability if its own state fights escalate; no platform can afford to have both local judges and local problem-gambling allies against it. The MGCB exit signals that state gambling agencies are treating CFTC registration as irrelevant to their consumer-protection missions, a stance that emboldens the attorneys general already suing Kalshi in five other states to keep pressing gambling-law theories. Meanwhile, the Schiff-Curtis bill advancing in Congress would ban sports event contracts on CFTC-regulated markets entirely, leaving Kalshi and Polymarket exposed from federal and state directions at once.

World Cup prediction market volume passes $2 billion as knockout stage begins

The $2 billion tournament volume proves prediction markets can absorb sportsbook-scale liquidity without settlement failures, a live test of the Bernstein thesis that financial incumbents will acquire prediction-market infrastructure. For Kalshi and Polymarket, clean settlement through the final would open the NFL and Olympics as next verticals and deflate state attorney general arguments that the product is unregulated gambling. A cracked settlement or fraud case does the opposite, reinforcing the gambling label just as Illinois and other states investigate. The whale bets Kalshi has flagged — including a $360,000 Mexico position — show the pools can take size, but without disclosed open interest or spread data, those remain unverified boasts that institutional desks cannot trade on. Whether the $45 billion June total converts to sustained institutional participation depends on whether the next marquee trade clears without slippage that sends size back to traditional sportsbooks.

Massachusetts judge lets attorney general expand gaming suit against Kalshi

Kalshi must now fight expanded claims in Massachusetts on top of active injunctions or suits in Michigan, Kentucky, New Mexico, and Illinois. The under-21 targeting allegation is a new tack: if it survives dismissal, other state attorneys general can copy the theory without waiting for federal preemption rulings. Each state court that accepts a gambling-law framing emboldens the next to sidestep CFTC registration entirely. Kalshi's legal budget and product roadmap must now account for parallel state fights that move faster than federal appeals. The platform's survival depends on affording every front simultaneously, not winning one clean federal ruling.

Michigan judge blocks Kalshi sports bets while Illinois tax fight heads to court

The Michigan injunction gives other state attorneys general a proven playbook: seek a pre-merits ban before Kalshi can reach federal appellate preemption rulings. Kalshi is now fighting state-level restrictions in Michigan, Illinois, Minnesota, Kentucky, and New Mexico simultaneously, each demanding separate legal budgets and potential geofencing. The Illinois 15% tax would erode margins against untaxed competitors if replicated elsewhere. Every state victory emboldens copycat statutes, stretching Kalshi's legal team thin and forcing the platform toward market-by-market retreat rather than one clean federal victory. Polymarket faces identical exposure, making the preemption outcome in any single federal court a survival event for both platforms.

OKX publishes settlement and dispute rules for Hit and Between event contracts

For OKX, self-authored settlement rules on its own official sources concentrate dispute risk internally rather than distributing it across third-party oracles or regulators. Traders betting on Hit and Between outcomes must trust OKX to verify and adjudicate results, a structure that becomes a liability if a high-profile contract settles against market perception. Competing platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket operate under CFTC oversight with independent settlement frameworks; OKX's crypto-native model lacks that external check, exposing the exchange to reputation damage or user flight if a contested resolution goes viral. The rules' omission of detailed dispute procedures leaves the process opaque, creating uncertainty that institutional participants typically avoid and that retail traders may not price in until a conflict arises.

Tech

Solana prediction market World launches on Phantom wallet

World's launch puts Phantom's 20 million users at the center of a live experiment in whether crypto-native infrastructure can draw volume from CFTC-regulated venues. The platform settles on-chain in a Solana-native stablecoin, not dollars, which makes it accessible to global wallet holders but leaves U.S. retail traders exposed to stablecoin risk and without regulatory recourse. Phantom already swapped its prediction market backend from Kalshi to World, suggesting the wallet provider sees crypto-native distribution as more defensible than regulated partnerships. For Kalshi and Polymarket, the threat is not immediate volume loss — Globe and Mail reporting suggests incumbents face no near-term pressure — but a parallel user acquisition channel that operates outside compliance cost and settlement friction. If World proves Solana settlement can match centralized speed during the World Cup, Phantom becomes a gateway that siphons experimenters before they ever register at a regulated exchange.

Global

Congressional aides expect insider-trading ban on prediction markets to pass, while Canadians oppose legalization

For Kalshi and Polymarket, congressional staff expectations of a ban create advance warning of a compliance burden they cannot yet scope or time. Both platforms must now budget for surveillance systems that flag congressional and staff trades without knowing whether the bill mandates disclosure, account closure, or criminal penalties. The uncertainty is itself costly: legal teams and engineering cycles diverted to preemptive compliance are cycles not spent on product expansion or state preemption fights. Meanwhile, Canadian opposition closes a potential growth market where neither platform currently operates, removing a revenue hedge if U.S. sports contracts face federal restriction. The platforms face tightening margins on two borders at once.

Kalshi and Polymarket reshuffle LeBron next-team odds without volume disclosure

Headline percentages on player movement markets are not tradable signals without execution proof. Traders on Kalshi and Polymarket cannot distinguish a 58% Cavaliers line from thin-book drift or genuine two-sided conviction when no volume, open interest, or market-maker depth is shown. For both platforms, the pattern risks cementing a perception gap against sportsbooks and rival venues that document liquidity. Kalshi's parallel Bronny market already demonstrated how fast sentiment flips on roster news without contract structure to anchor it. The competitive pressure is concrete: Polymarket's sports vertical growth depends on proving it can handle block-size flow, and Kalshi's professional trading interface is built for institutional flow that will not commit without spread and depth visibility. If neither platform pairs the next marquee athlete release with hard trade data, the liquidity narrative defaults to venues that do.

Spotify asks Kalshi and Polymarket to remove logos over chart-rigging markets

Kalshi and Polymarket, the demand forces a choice between vertical expansion and brand liability: every entertainment contract now risks a trademark challenge if the underlying data source feels misrepresented. Settlement integrity itself is under scrutiny, since Spotify can retroactively delete streams and rewrite the chart positions that determine payouts. Platforms must now negotiate explicit data licenses and revision protocols before launching culture markets, or face takedown requests that erode trader confidence. Competitors eyeing music, streaming, or social-media verticals must secure partner consent upfront, or watch their event contracts collapse when data providers disown the metrics.

Stocks

Robinhood stock rally spotlights event-contract and Bitstamp volume acceleration

The volume spike tests whether Robinhood's event-contract volume has matured into a standalone revenue pillar or remains a speculative sideshow tethered to stock momentum. Robinhood, proving that growth sustains past earnings season justifies the Rothera exchange investment and severs its fee-sharing dependence on Kalshi. Kalshi already lost its largest retail distribution channel when Robinhood brought flow in-house; if Robinhood's $2.1 billion contract jump holds, Kalshi's $40 billion valuation faces a harder volume-replacement math. The Bitstamp parallel matters too: dual acceleration in crypto and event contracts would mark Robinhood as a cross-asset retail venue rather than a stockbroker with experiments, reshaping how competitors and regulators size its systemic footprint.

Polymarket paid creators $1.9 million in fake bets on dummy sites

Polymarket now faces scrutiny from both the CFTC and Congress over whether the staged videos constitute isolated marketing overreach or systemic conduct that threatens its exchange designation. Any finding of a pattern puts its CFTC order at direct risk and would force immediate operational restructuring. The three-front pressure — agency probe, congressional demands, and consumer litigation — stretches legal resources and complicates any growth timeline before a likely enforcement determination. Competitors gain regulatory breathing room while Polymarket defends its status.

Kalshi in talks to raise at $40 billion valuation, nearly double May mark

Kalshi's $40 billion valuation target pressures Polymarket to match its fundraising pace or surrender the institutional capital that feeds platform liquidity. A widening valuation gap would let Kalshi outspend rivals on product and market-maker incentives just as both venues court the same DRW, Wintermute, and IMC desks.

CME plans to sue CFTC to block Kalshi's bitcoin perpetual futures

Kalshi to defend its perpetual-futures structure in court just as it races to convert $5.5 billion in two-week volume into sticky flow. An adverse ruling would compel Kalshi to restructure the product or exit the perps market entirely.

Meta weighed Kalshi buyout before building play-money Arena

The revealed talks expose the strategic value Kalshi held in Zuckerberg's eyes at the moment of peak prediction-market hype, and what Meta chose to walk away from. Kalshi, the disclosure is a double-edged signal: it validates the platform as acquisition-worthy at a time when it is pitching a $40 billion valuation, yet it confirms that the largest distribution gatekeeper in social media opted to compete rather than pay. Arena now enters market with full knowledge of Kalshi's product mechanics, user flow, and revenue model from those same discussions. Kalshi must prove its real-money regulatory edge can outpace a free rival with zero user acquisition cost across 3 billion daily users.

Bernstein predicts prediction-market M&A wave as platforms consolidate infrastructure

Vertical integration is becoming the price of admission, not a competitive edge. DraftKings and Coinbase have already bought their infrastructure; Robinhood has routed 16 billion event contracts through Rothera. Platforms still renting technology stack face margin compression or acquisition. Kalshi and Polymarket, Bernstein's target label means every funding conversation now includes a takeover premium. The next 12 months will separate owners from renters: operators that do not control their clearing and custody will either sell at a discount or watch liquidity migrate to vertically integrated venues that keep the full fee.

Trump Jr. received $300,000 equity stake in Kalshi

Kalshi's recruitment of a politically connected figure now produces direct financial exposure to the Trump family's regulatory leverage. The equity grant gives Donald Trump Jr. a personal stake in Kalshi's success just as the platform defends its CFTC registration against state attorneys general in Kentucky and Minnesota, and rolls out bitcoin perpetual futures amid CME litigation. Any CFTC or congressional action affecting Kalshi's sports-event contracts, altcoin expansion, or state preemption cases now lands on a regulator with potential political ties to a major shareholder. Competitors cannot match this access, but the optics risk inviting extra scrutiny from lawmakers already pressing prediction markets on marketing practices and consumer protection.

Kalshi CEO confirms IPO consideration but rules out 2026 listing

Kalshi must now deliver on its $40 billion valuation talks or see its funding window narrow as Robinhood and DraftKings build self-contained competing platforms that need no third-party exchange.

Wealthsimple partners with Kalshi to bring 4,000 event contracts to Canadian investors

Kalshi gains a retail distribution channel in Canada just as Robinhood routes World Cup contracts to Rothera while keeping some markets on Kalshi, threatening Kalshi's US volume. The Wealthsimple pipeline lets Kalshi replace slipping Robinhood flow with new international retail traders instead of fighting Rothera for the same American users.

Novig wins CFTC approval to operate Ludlow Exchange as designated contract market

Novig must now launch and capture liquidity before DraftKings' DKeX clears its self-certified contracts and Robinhood scales its existing brokerage distribution. ProphetX's five-day launch shows that first-mover advantage in this window is measured in days, not months.

Kalshi, Crypto.com and Polymarket sue to block Kentucky's 14.25% prediction markets tax

Kalshi and Polymarket must now defend Kentucky accounts from both Attorney General Coleman's state gambling suit and this tax challenge they filed against the same state. Any adverse ruling on either front risks forcing both platforms to geofence Kentucky while their federal CFTC registration is tested in preemption litigation.

Michigan judge blocks Kalshi sports contracts for 14 days with $120K daily fine threat

The $120,000 daily fine threat turns a temporary pause into a hard financial ultimatum: Kalshi must either geofence Michigan entirely or risk burning cash while it fights. This is the second state to successfully ban Kalshi's sports products after Illinois's tax-and-license push, and Judge Aquilina's willingness to enjoin before any merits ruling gives other state attorneys general a faster playbook than federal preemption appeals. Kalshi is already defending parallel actions in Illinois, Minnesota, Kentucky, New Mexico, and Massachusetts; each new front demands separate legal budgets and product restrictions. The 14-day window is short, but a second state copying Michigan's pre-merits injunction would confirm that state courts can move faster than the Sixth Circuit. Platforms now face a patchwork survival test: afford every fight simultaneously or retreat market by market.

Senators demand CFTC investigate Polymarket over fake bets report

Polymarket must now answer to the CFTC on two tracks — an agency probe and a congressionally demanded investigation — while the staged-bet finding is fresh. Any determination that the tactic was systemic rather than isolated puts its CFTC exchange designation at direct risk.

Cboe launches Cboe Predicts with S&P 500 binary option contracts

Cboe's existing options exchange status lets it bypass the CFTC registration delays that slowed Kalshi and Polymarket, giving the world's second-largest stock exchange a structural speed advantage in capturing retail prediction-market flow.

CFTC sues Kentucky to block state crackdown on prediction markets

Kalshi and Polymarket must now defend Kentucky accounts from both state gambling suits and federal preemption litigation. Any adverse ruling on either front risks forcing both platforms to geofence Kentucky while their CFTC registration is tested in court.

Charles Schwab and Cboe to launch S&P 500 binary options contracts

Schwab's 39 million accounts give Kalshi and Polymarket their first rival with existing retail scale and brokerage trust, not a startup fighting for user acquisition. Cboe's regulated options plumbing means Schwab can skip the CFTC registration slog that slowed earlier entrants.

Kalshi in talks to raise at $40bn valuation as IPO discussions progress

Kalshi's $40 billion valuation target and IPO talks underscore its dominance in prediction markets, pressuring rivals like Polymarket as revenue hits $2 billion annualized.

Kentucky AG Coleman sues Kalshi and Polymarket over alleged illegal sports betting

Kalshi and Polymarket must now defend Kentucky accounts from both Coleman's state gambling suit and the separate tax challenge they filed against the same state. Any adverse ruling on either front risks forcing both platforms to geofence Kentucky while their federal CFTC registration is tested in preemption litigation.

Gary Gensler files amicus brief backing Ohio against Kalshi in sports prediction market case

The brief arms Ohio and other states with a former dual-agency chair's authority to challenge CFTC jurisdictional claims, directly undermining Kalshi's federal preemption defense in its fights with Minnesota, Rhode Island, and New Mexico.

Novig and ProphetX win CFTC approvals as sports-native prediction exchanges

Novig must now race to launch and capture liquidity before DraftKings' DKeX clears its self-certified contracts and Robinhood scales its existing brokerage distribution. ProphetX's five-day launch shows that first-mover advantage in this window is measured in days, not months.

Polymarket becomes exclusive US prediction market partner of Liga MX

Polymarket now holds official league data relationships for both Liga MX and the World Cup broadcast cycle. If rivals like Kalshi and FanDuel Predicts cannot match comparable soccer federation tie-ins before the knockout stage, Polymarket will capture the bulk of tournament-related retail flow on CFTC-regulated venues.

Polymarket traders give SpaceX 61% odds of $2T to $2.5T valuation on debut

Several million dollars in SpaceX contract volume tests whether prediction markets can serve as the primary price-discovery venue for pre-IPO speculation. If Polymarket's closing-odds line converges with SpaceX's actual market cap, institutional desks will treat event contracts as benchmark inputs for illiquid equity bets.

Sportradar signs multi-year data deal to power Kalshi sports event contracts

Kalshi's access to verified league data from Sportradar strengthens its regulatory credibility. If institutional desks demand official data for pricing, competitors without comparable feeds will struggle to match ticket size.

WSJ: 20% of Polymarket dispute judges bet on cases they ruled on

Polymarket's UMA oracle system is now under direct scrutiny from traders who wagered at scale. Any erosion of confidence in resolution finality threatens the platform's ability to maintain deep liquidity on corporate-event contracts.

Anonymous Polymarket user bets $400,000 on Putin exit by year-end

This wager tests whether Polymarket's recently built institutional liquidity can absorb concentrated directional risk outside of sports, where DRW, Wintermute, and IMC have already demonstrated capacity during the World Cup. A $400,000 political bet from a new account with no track record forces market makers to price assassination, coup, and succession risk in a thin information environment. If the position clears without widening spreads, it signals that Polymarket's liquidity backbone is venue-agnostic and can support event-contract expansion into geopolitics and other non-sports verticals. For competitors like Kalshi, it raises the bar for matching cross-category depth. Polymarket, repeated whale clearance in unstructured markets converts tournament-proven infrastructure into a permanent liquidity advantage that attracts institutional desks permanently rather than seasonally.

CFTC opens extensive probe into Polymarket over fake bets and staged trades

Polymarket now faces a formal CFTC investigation running parallel to bipartisan Senate demands and a consumer lawsuit, all centered on whether its staged-bet influencer campaign was systemic. The agency must determine if the fabricated wins and paid creator posts represent isolated marketing overreach or a pattern of market manipulation that threatens its exchange designation. Any finding of systemic conduct puts Polymarket's CFTC order at direct risk and would force immediate operational restructuring. Competitors like Kalshi gain regulatory breathing room while Polymarket fights on three fronts simultaneously, stretching legal resources and complicating any growth timeline before a likely enforcement determination.

Kalshi partners with ADI Predictstreet on FIFA World Cup 2026 branding

The deleted FIFA post and corrected ADI Predictstreet attribution reveal how thin the line is between legitimate co-branding and overstated partner claims in prediction markets. For Kalshi, the confusion risks regulatory and reputational scrutiny at the moment it is fighting state-level challenges in Illinois and pursuing a major valuation. The episode tests whether the platform's compliance and communications infrastructure can scale as fast as its sports ambitions. ADI Predictstreet's approval to expand its prediction market range adds regulatory complexity to the tie-up. A second misstep on partnership claims would give state attorneys general already investigating prediction markets a concrete example to cite.

Zuckerberg pushes Meta to partner with Polymarket and Kalshi for Arena

For Polymarket and Kalshi, Meta's partnership overtures carry a dual threat: Meta's experimental prediction markets app could drain their user base if Arena scales across 3 billion daily users, or the deals could cement them as the regulated backend for the largest social platform on Earth. The buy-versus-build decision Zuckerberg already tested with Kalshi shows acquisition remains on the table. Neither platform can afford a partnership that gives Meta the data to replicate their markets while keeping the real-money layer. The negotiation leverage belongs to Zuckerberg, and whatever terms he extracts will set the template for how prediction markets survive or surrender to big-tech distribution.

National consumer advocates sue Polymarket over fake bets and secret influencer ads

Polymarket now faces parallel litigation from individual plaintiffs and organized consumer advocates over its marketing practices.

Tech

Meta builds experimental prediction markets app called Arena

A Meta prediction market with nearly 3 billion daily users across Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp would instantly dwarf Polymarket and Kalshi on distribution. Even modest play-money engagement would force the two CFTC-regulated platforms to defend their product edge against a free rival with unmatched scale and zero user acquisition cost.