Kalshi adds risk scores, employment checks and whistleblower tools after first surveillance audit

Kalshi to collect employment data from customers in high-risk markets

Kalshi to require employer disclosure on select trades after White House warnings

FanDuel Predicts adds Crypto.com as second exchange partner for event contracts

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Stocks

DraftKings Predictions volume reaches $3.1B annualized run rate in May

3h ago

WagerWire approved as Gibraltar's second prediction markets licensee

8h ago

Wisconsin seeks preliminary injunction to halt Kalshi, Robinhood, and Coinbase event contracts

13h ago

Senator Warren demands CFTC records on staff exits and Polymarket, Gemini, Crypto.com oversight

16h ago

Tech

Reddit and Hacker News users claim AI and bot arbitrage profits on Polymarket

26h ago

OneFootball and Polymarket partner to embed football prediction markets

27h ago

Top Stories

CFTC approves first U.S. bitcoin perpetual futures for Kalshi and Coinbase

Robinhood already drives the majority of Kalshi's volume and just launched competing perpetual futures. Kalshi must capture that brokered retail flow during its altcoin expansion or watch U.S. leveraged crypto trading drift back to offshore venues launches first CFTC-approved bitcoin perpetual futures for U.S. traders.

Polymarket BTC contract faces CFTC scrutiny after mid-contract rule change

Polymarket must now navigate CFTC enforcement on its existing BTC contract while the agency writes new rules that could redefine which event contracts qualify as commodity derivatives. Any final rule restricting crypto-linked predictions would force the platform to restructure or delist those markets.

Robinhood brings Rothera event contracts in-house with $2 million debut weekend

Rothera's capture of Robinhood flow directly threatens Kalshi's retail volume, which Robinhood already drives the majority of. Kalshi must now rebuild its standalone pipeline outside Robinhood just as DRW, Wintermute and IMC bring institutional liquidity to Kalshi and Polymarket.

Kalshi perps hit $1 billion in first week as Robinhood rivalry heats up

Robinhood already drives the majority of Kalshi's volume and just began routing contracts to its new Rothera exchange. Kalshi must prove its standalone derivatives product can retain retail flow that might otherwise migrate as both platforms expand their offerings.

December trial set for soldier accused of Polymarket insider trading

Any conviction gives the CFTC a concrete misappropriation template to deploy against Polymarket's surveillance gaps. The platform must build insider-trading compliance programs or risk co-defendant exposure in future DOJ-CFTC parallel actions.

Steil pushes to bar lawmakers from trading on Kalshi and Polymarket

Polymarket and Kalshi would lose their highest-profile organic user segment if congressional accounts are forced to close, stripping both platforms of the political insider flow that drives liquidity on Capitol Hill-adjacent contracts. The ban would also pressure competing platforms to build real-time surveillance systems capable of flagging elected-official trades before regulators demand them.

DRW, Wintermute and IMC build prediction market desks for Kalshi and Polymarket

DRW, Wintermute and IMC bring institutional-grade pricing and block-size liquidity to Kalshi and Polymarket for the first time. Any competing venue without comparable market-maker relationships will struggle to match execution quality for sophisticated traders.

Sportradar signs multi-year data deal to power Kalshi sports event contracts

Kalshi's access to verified league data from Sportradar strengthens its regulatory credibility at the exact moment Robinhood is splitting World Cup flow across Rothera and its own platform. If institutional desks demand officialese data for pricing, competitors without comparable feeds will struggle to match ticket size.

Polymarket CMO sent $2.5M via personal PayPal to 800+ influencers: reports

Polymarket must now defend its marketing controls against CFTC market-integrity scrutiny or risk enforcement that treats undisclosed paid promotion as price manipulation. Any finding that influencer spend distorted odds would undermine the organic signal value that draws institutional liquidity to its event contracts.

Robinhood splits World Cup contracts across in-house platform, Rothera, and Kalshi

Rothera's capture of Robinhood World Cup flow directly threatens Kalshi's trading volume at the precise moment Robinhood's event-contract business is scaling fastest. Any sustained migration will force Kalshi to rebuild its retail flow pipeline outside Robinhood just as sports event contracts face mounting tribal and regulatory challenges.

DOJ and CFTC charge Google engineer in second coordinated prediction markets insider trading case

Polymarket and Kalshi must now build insider-trading compliance programs that can detect confidential data exploits by both government and corporate insiders. Any platform that fails to surveil for these abuses risks co-defendant exposure in future DOJ-CFTC parallel actions.

Polymarket World Cup volume crosses $1.8B as France, Spain lead Kalshi and Polymarket odds

Polymarket must now prove its $1.8 billion in World Cup volume can convert to sustainable fee revenue before Robinhood's Rothera split and Kalshi's institutional market-maker pipeline harden into permanent structural advantages. The tournament is becoming a live liquidity war between crypto-native retail flow and regulated exchange infrastructure.

Kalshi and Polymarket direct affiliates to remove election misinformation posts

Kalshi and Polymarket must now prove they can surveil and shut down affiliate misinformation faster than it spreads, or the CFTC will treat marketing gaps as market-integrity violations. Traders relying on organic price signals face asymmetric information risk if promoted odds embed hidden advertising spend.

MEXC launches Combo for bundled multi-event prediction contracts

MEXC's institutional pricing tier on bundled contracts tests whether crypto exchange infrastructure can capture serious prediction market volume from established venues. Any traction would validate multi-event combinations as a standalone product category rather than a niche feature.

Stocks

Cantor and Deutsche Bank tie Robinhood prediction markets to stock upside

Cantor's price-target hike means Robinhood's event-contract expansion is now showing up in sell-side models, not just product roadmaps. Any miss on prediction-market traction will directly hit the valuation support Wall Street is beginning to bake in.

BBB ad watchdog refers Kalshi to FTC after influencer inquiry no-show

The NAD referral arms the FTC with a concrete advertising-compliance complaint alongside the separate congressional request for a broader prediction-market probe. Kalshi now faces potential FTC consent decrees and civil penalties on two tracks, adding advertising enforcement to its existing regulatory load of CFTC oversight and multiple state-court actions.

La Liga's Osasuna reportedly hedged relegation risk with €1.2M Kalshi bet

Susquehanna's role as counterparty and the reported seven-figure profit normalize event contracts as a hedging instrument for sports franchise balance sheets. Any CFTC or La Liga review of the trade will now shape whether other clubs treat Kalshi as a regulated risk-transfer venue or an integrity threat.

Kalshi rolls out insider trading safeguards amid election betting scrutiny

Kalshi must now demonstrate that its new security measures can detect and block abnormal trading patterns in real time, or risk being named as a co-defendant when DOJ-CFTC parallel enforcement actions target individual traders for exploiting nonpublic information on its markets.

CFTC charges second individual in a month with insider trading of event contracts

Polymarket and Kalshi must now treat event-contract insider trading as a routine enforcement risk. Platforms that cannot detect or self-report confidential-data exploits risk becoming co-defendants in the next DOJ-CFTC parallel action.

Soldier's trial set for December 7 in $400,000 Polymarket insider trading case

Polymarket must build insider-trading compliance programs capable of detecting classified-data exploits by government insiders, or risk co-defendant exposure in future DOJ-CFTC parallel actions. Any conviction gives regulators a concrete misappropriation template to deploy against the platform's surveillance gaps.

EDGE Markets raises $29.2M Series A for prediction market bank and payment rail

Wintermute's automated liquidity on Kalshi and Polymarket needs instant settlement rails to function. EDGE Pro's real-time deposits give market makers the banking speed required to bridge retail and institutional flow without reliance on traditional payment networks that treat prediction markets as high-risk merchants.

Tech

LBank and Byreal launch competing prediction market products

Byreal Predict joins Jupiter's Forecast on Solana, giving the chain two native venues competing for the same cost-sensitive traders. Any activity captured by either Solana platform directly targets Ethereum incumbents' market share rather than expanding the total addressable market.

Senator Warren demands CFTC answers on crypto and prediction market oversight

CFTC Chairman Selig must now answer Warren in writing while simultaneously defending the agency's event-contract framework in court and against inspector-general scrutiny. Any admission of weakened enforcement capacity hands Congress ammunition to override the CFTC's prediction-market jurisdiction.

KuCoin Web3 Wallet integrates Polymarket for in-wallet event trading

Polymarket gains wallet-native distribution that bypasses brokerage channels entirely. For Kalshi, the deal sharpens the competitive threat from a platform already cornering mobile and Web3 retail flow while Kalshi relies on Interactive Brokers and Moomoo.

Kalshi sets ninth straight monthly volume record at $17.91B as Polymarket falls to $7.08B

Kalshi's streak gives it hard volume evidence for its Series F pitch that regulated markets drain offshore liquidity. Any sustained margin over Polymarket pressures the crypto venue to defend its retail flow or lose the narrative battle for institutional market-making talent.

Knicks sweep odds tighten on Polymarket after $820,000 Game 3 bet

The $820,000 position tests whether Polymarket can retain whale flow against Kalshi's promotional NBA Finals spend and Rothera's Robinhood World Cup capture. Any migration of large sports bettors to sharper-priced or better-integrated rivals threatens Polymarket's event-contract dominance at the peak of its sports calendar.

South Korea targets individual Polymarket users after $52M Seoul election market

Polymarket traders in South Korea now face potential criminal gambling charges rather than platform-level regulatory action. Any convictions would give other Asian regulators a template for classifying prediction-market trading as criminal gambling.

Opinion

CNN's 'The Odds' segment blends polling and prediction market data

CNN is the first major cable network to give prediction markets recurring airtime alongside polling. Any sustained ratings success will pressure MSNBC and Fox to launch rival segments, expanding the audience for event-contract platforms beyond finance and politics Twitter.

Polymarket Clarity Act odds fall to 47% ahead of White House illicit-finance meeting

The 47% price without disclosed volume or open interest means institutional desks cannot size positions against the Clarity Act outcome. That opacity keeps Polymarket's political markets in the headline-reading tier rather than the portfolio-hedging tier, limiting liquidity to retail flow and event-driven scalpers.

Global

Spain blocks Polymarket and Kalshi for unlicensed gambling operations

Polymarket must now defend against active government blocking in five major markets — adding Spain to Indonesia, India, Brazil, and South Korea — while any consistent foreign enforcement template treating its CFTC-regulated contracts as gambling directly undermines its argument that U.S. federal oversight insulates it from overseas shutdowns.

Kalshi refers George Santos to DOJ and CFTC over State of the Union bets

Every CFTC-registered exchange must now demonstrate surveillance capable of catching insiders who trade on their own non-public schedules. Any platform that fails to self-report such abuse risks co-defendant exposure when DOJ and CFTC file parallel actions.

Indonesia blocks Polymarket after presidential early-exit markets trigger gambling ban

Polymarket must now defend against active government blocking in four major markets — Indonesia, India, Spain, and Brazil — while any consistent foreign enforcement template treating its CFTC-regulated contracts as gambling weakens its core argument that U.S. federal oversight insulates it from overseas shutdowns.

Global

Polymarket hires Jupiter exec, targets Japan approval by 2030

Polymarket must now manage simultaneous regulatory defense in South Korea and India while pursuing Japan's slow FSA timeline. Any adverse ruling in Seoul or Delhi would arm Japanese regulators with a ready enforcement template, collapsing the 2030 target before lobbying begins in earnest.

Indonesia blocks Polymarket as South Korea probes and Spain bans platform

Polymarket must now defend against simultaneous blocking in Indonesia, Spain, and prospective India action while a House Oversight probe demands surveillance records by June 5. Any consistent foreign enforcement template treating CFTC-regulated contracts as gambling weakens the platform's argument that U.S. federal oversight insulates it from overseas shutdowns.

Polymarket partners with Nasdaq Private Market for pre-IPO prediction contracts

Kalshi must now match Polymarket's Nasdaq-backed data partnership or concede trader liquidity on AI-listing odds. The rival platforms are already running divergent OpenAI and Anthropic valuation markets.

CFTC approves first bitcoin perpetual futures contract for Kalshi

Robinhood accounts for the majority of Kalshi's volume. Any shift to leveraged perpetual futures will require fresh clearing agreements or risk fracturing the single-broker flow that already drove a 49.5% volume plunge when sports calendars went light.

WSJ: 20% of Polymarket dispute judges bet on cases they ruled on

Polymarket's UMA oracle system is now under direct scrutiny from traders who wagered at scale. Any erosion of confidence in resolution finality threatens the platform's ability to maintain deep liquidity on corporate-event contracts.

New Mexico AG Torrez sues Kalshi over alleged illegal sports betting

Kalshi must now defend against state-court gambling claims in New Mexico while simultaneously fighting the CFTC's federal preemption battles in Rhode Island and Minnesota. Any adverse state ruling arms regulators in Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin with precedent to force geofencing or block operations entirely.

Kalshi sues Minnesota to block first US felony ban on prediction markets

Kalshi must now litigate on two fronts—federal court against Minnesota's felony statute and Dane County against Wisconsin's parallel injunction push—draining legal resources ahead of the August 1 effective date. Any loss on preemption would invite copycat felony bans from the four other states already mid-investigation, while a win would cement CFTC exclusivity and freeze state criminalization efforts nationwide.

CFTC says it should never have sued Gemini, joins motion to vacate $5M consent order

Any court grant of the vacatur erases the CFTC's only litigated resolution against a crypto exchange that also operates a prediction market, stripping the agency of precedent it could cite in its active preemption defense alongside Kalshi and Polymarket in Ohio, Wisconsin, and Minnesota.

Google engineer Spagnuolo charged with $1.2M Polymarket insider trading using search data

Polymarket must now demonstrate its surveillance systems can flag search-data-driven positions by corporate insiders. Any surveillance gap gives DOJ and CFTC precedent to treat the platform as a co-defendant in future parallel actions.

Nine wallets dominate Polymarket dispute resolutions, report finds

Polymarket must now defend against six concurrent federal and journalistic probes spanning three distinct wallet-surveillance failures. Any confirmation that its UMA oracle system allows anonymous whales to dictate billion-dollar outcomes could accelerate the Senate account-exclusion legislation already advancing to the House.

CFTC sues Rhode Island to block state enforcement against Kalshi and Polymarket

The CFTC's entry gives Kalshi institutional backing it lacked in its earlier Ohio suit. A federal-preemption win arms the agency's parallel challenge against Minnesota and deflects enforcement threats from Wisconsin and Pennsylvania regulators.

Polymarket files with CFTC to list sports parlays as SEC weighs prediction market ETFs

Polymarket lacks CFTC registration, so any self-certification denial or CFTC review delay keeps the platform offshore and sports-brokerage-dependent while Kalshi and FanDuel Predicts consolidate the onshore market. A green light would force the leagues—already negotiating data-sharing restrictions with Chair Selig—to confront a second unregistered competitor in their opposition campaign.

Stocks

Kalshi becomes first prediction market to join problem gambling council with $2M pledge

Kalshi's $2 million NCPG membership arms it with a responsible-gaming credential as Minnesota lawmakers advance a felony ban and Rhode Island's attorney general sues the platform, giving Kalshi a tangible counterargument in statehouses that its safeguards match sportsbook standards.

Kalshi and Polymarket diverge 59 points on OpenAI IPO odds as both launch AI valuation markets

Kalshi must now defend its standalone sourcing model against Polymarket's Nasdaq-backed data partnership. Any persistent pricing gap on the same OpenAI and Anthropic contracts will cost Kalshi institutional flow as traders arbitrage the two venues.

Four N.M. tribes sue Kalshi, say sports markets violate tribal gaming compacts

Kalshi must now defend against tribal sovereignty challenges in both New Mexico and Wisconsin while the CFTC simultaneously fights Ohio's jurisdictional claims on its behalf. Any adverse ruling on IGRA-protected tribal land exposure could force the platform to geoblock near reservation boundaries nationwide, just ahead of its planned fall sports expansion.