Florida primary prediction markets draw heavy volume on Donalds, thin liquidity elsewhere
Florida's August 18 primaries feature prediction markets ranging from Rep. Byron Donalds' near-certain governor nomination to a progressive test in South Florida, but liquidity is concentrating in just a handful of contests. Donalds is trading at 99% on Kalshi with $40.4 million in volume, while most other supposedly settled statewide races have attracted only a fraction of that action. The pattern shows traders are betting on political relevance as much as they are betting on outcomes.
Reveals that even in a high-profile election cycle, prediction market liquidity clusters around celebrity candidates rather than spreading across races. Platforms may need to rethink market design or incentives to deepen participation in down-ballot contests.