Upcoming Events

House Oversight document production deadline — Kalshi and Polymarket must turn over KYC procedures, geographic restriction records, and suspicious-trade detection logs per Chairman Comer's May 22 investigation letters.

House Ag Committee — CFTC FY27 budget hearing. Watch for event-contract line item and whether Behnam testifies on enforcement priorities.

Possible House Oversight hearing on prediction market insider trading. Committee may convene after the June 5 document deadline; Rep. Pappas has called for subpoena power. Pre-recess timing likely if documents are received on schedule.

Senate Commerce Committee follow-up hearing expected. Chair Blackburn stated the May 20 "No Sure Bets" hearing was the first of several planned; conferring with full committee Chair Cruz on federal standards legislation path.

New Jersey certiorari petition to the Supreme Court expected. After losing at the Third Circuit on April 7, the standard 90-day window places the cert petition deadline around early July. Would tee up the first SCOTUS review of prediction market regulation.

Ninth Circuit ruling window opens — Kalshi, Crypto.com, Robinhood v. Nevada. Oral arguments held April 16; panel leaned skeptical of the platforms. A loss for Kalshi creates the circuit split with the Third Circuit that accelerates Supreme Court review.

Interactive Brokers Q2 call (after close). Watch for ForecastEx volume guidance and any commentary on the CFTC's pending event-contract rulemaking.

Fourth Circuit ruling window — Kalshi v. Maryland. Panel questioned whether sports event contracts are "basically gambling" at the May 7 oral arguments. Could deepen the circuit split or align with the Third Circuit.

DraftKings Q2 call. First quarter under the Predictions super-app rollout; analyst questions expected on the Railbird DCM launch and the $200-300M prediction-markets investment commitment.

Robinhood Q2 call (after close). HOOD is named alongside Kalshi in the 9th Circuit Nevada case — expect prediction-markets product questions on Robinhood Derivatives traction.

Robinhood Markets (HOOD) Q2 2026 earnings. Prediction markets volume hit $8.8B in Q1 (~27% of Kalshi's volume). First full-quarter read on prediction market revenue contribution after April court rulings and regulatory scrutiny intensified.

Penn Entertainment Q2 call. PENN has been the most conservative legacy sportsbook on event contracts; first read on whether posture shifts as DKNG and FLUT escalate.

CFTC Crypto Sprint technical-amendments rulemaking target completion. Covers collateral, margin, clearing, settlement, and reporting amendments to enable blockchain infrastructure in derivatives markets — affects how prediction market platforms handle settlement.

CFTC Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on prediction markets — earliest plausible window. ANPRM comment period closed April 30 with 1,500+ comments. Chair Selig has signaled urgency but legal analysts describe this as a multi-year process; fall timing more likely.