Clarity Act odds plunge to 20% on Polymarket as Trump stalls crypto agenda
Traders on Polymarket and Kalshi have sharply cut the odds of the Clarity Act passing into law this year. Polymarket now prices passage at 20%, down from near-certainty weeks earlier. The jurisdictional bill, which would clarify regulatory oversight of crypto assets, has lost momentum as President Trump has stalled on his crypto policy agenda. The repricing reflects growing market skepticism about near-term legislative action on digital asset regulation.
The 67-point collapse from above 80% in February turns the CLARITY contract into a live demonstration of policy-contract fragility. For institutional desks using prediction market odds to size crypto equity exposure, the swing erased predictive value faster than traditional legislative tracking. Kalshi and Polymarket both face a credibility problem: neither venue can offer traders shelter from violent repricing when political will shifts abruptly. The September 15 cloture vote is the last procedural checkpoint this session, and failure there likely shelves the bill until 2027.
For platforms pitching policy contracts as reference rates for serious capital, repeated violations on high-profile markets undermine the core value proposition. Institutional market makers will demand proof these instruments can hold a level through legislative windows before committing size. The midterms amplify the risk: if political markets keep repricing on headlines and White House signals alone, regulators have fresh grounds to question their hedging purpose under CFTC review.