Polymarket CLARITY Act odds fall to 14% despite Thune's push for this-week vote
Polymarket traders have cut the odds of the CLARITY Act (H.R.3633) becoming law in 2026 to 14%, the lowest level since tracking began. Senate Majority Leader Thune expects an initial vote this week, but traders remain skeptical the last-minute push will succeed.
The collapse from above 80% in February to 13% turns the CLARITY contract into a stress test for prediction markets as policy hedging tools. Institutional desks using Polymarket odds to size crypto equity exposure now face a 67-point swing that erased any predictive value faster than traditional legislative tracking. The September 15 cloture vote is the last procedural checkpoint this session, and failure there likely kills the bill until 2027.
For Polymarket, repeated violent repricing on the same high-profile contract undermines its pitch as a stable reference rate for serious capital. Kalshi's competing CLARITY contract trades in the same information environment, so neither venue offers traders shelter from the volatility. Both platforms must prove policy contracts can hold a level through legislative windows before institutional market makers commit size.