Thune's last-minute push fails to halt Polymarket CLARITY odds drop to 14%
Polymarket traders slashed the odds of the CLARITY Act (H.R. 3633) becoming law in 2026 to 14%, a collapse from levels above 80% earlier this year. Senator Thune floated a last-minute Senate vote expectation, but participants judged the maneuver insufficient to overcome legislative obstacles ahead of the recess deadline. The contract's level marks the lowest probability since tracking began.
The CLARITY contract's collapse from 82% to 13% turns it into a lesson on prediction-market fragility for policy traders. Any desk using Polymarket odds to hedge crypto equity exposure now faces gap risk that dwarfs the policy signal itself. Galaxy Research's prior 30% estimate already showed traditional analysts below market price, and traders are still catching down.
For Polymarket, repeated violent repricing on the same bill undermines its pitch as a stable reference rate for serious capital. Kalshi's competing contract trades in the same information environment, so neither venue offers shelter. The institutional market makers both platforms need will demand proof that policy contracts can hold a level before committing size.
Third consecutive sharp drop in Polymarket's CLARITY Act contract this month, after falls to 34% and then 24%, with the same volatility undermining its value as a stable policy reference rate.