Polymarket CLARITY Act odds rebound to 35% on revised Senate bill
Polymarket traders on September 14 price the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act at a 30-35% chance of passing in 2026. The move higher follows release of a revised 630-page Senate Republican bill. Frank Chaparro flagged the 35% probability on X. The CLARITY Act would establish a U.S. regulatory framework for digital assets. The pricing follows a period when odds had fallen to roughly 16% ahead of a Senate cloture vote.
The split between Polymarket's 35% and the roughly 37% level an editor noted for Kalshi gives traders two distinct price anchors for the same legislative outcome. The gap invites arbitrage scrutiny or suggests each platform's user base weights procedural risks differently. The $12 million already wagered on this contract keeps liquidity deep enough to absorb institutional-sized positions.
Senate Republicans' release of a full rewritten text shifts the pricing driver from cloture math to substantive policy details, changing what traders must model. For operators, sustained volume on a crypto-policy contract proves political markets can generate repeat engagement beyond one-off election events. Any trader built an earlier position at 16% now faces a decision: take the double or hold for passage. The next cloture vote count will test whether this rebound holds.