Kalshi traders slash Clarity Act odds after GOP rejects Democratic counter-offer
Kalshi traders cut their odds of Clarity Act passage to 51% on Tuesday, down from earlier higher levels, after Republicans rejected a Democratic counter-proposal and pushed a longer timeline. The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act faces a Senate cloture vote requiring 60 votes to advance. Earlier, traders on both Polymarket and Kalshi had bid odds to multi-week highs after Republicans released a revised bill and President Trump approved new ethics provisions. Polymarket had priced near 30%, while Kalshi hit as high as 64% before Tuesday's reversal.
Traders now treat the Clarity Act contract as a live macro signal for crypto positions, so each repricing forces immediate portfolio decisions. The split between platforms — Kalshi at 51% after Tuesday's drop versus earlier spikes near 64%, and Polymarket holding near 30% — invites arbitrage attempts that may fail on differing settlement criteria.
Bitcoin already moved with Monday's probability climb and gave back gains on the reversal, exposing anyone who traded the headline. For Polymarket, the linkage between political contracts and asset prices is a new kind of systemic attention it did not have a year ago. The platform that settles closest to actual outcome gains authority for future legislative markets. Traders holding through the cloture vote face asymmetric downside if the 60-vote threshold fails.