Polymarket Clarity Act odds crater to 14% as Democrats balk at GOP ethics terms
Polymarket odds for passage of the CLARITY Act cryptocurrency legislation fell to roughly 14-18% on September 15 after briefly climbing near 30%. The collapse followed Sen. Cynthia Lummis rejecting a Democratic proposal and key Democrats resisting GOP ethics provisions in the revised bill. The sharp repricing coincided with a 6% slide in Coinbase shares and a Bitcoin drop to $75.6K, even as crypto spot markets like XRP had earlier rallied on legislative hopes.
Polymarket's CLARITY Act contract has become a live trading signal for crypto portfolios, so the collapse from 30% to 14% forces immediate position decisions. Traders who bought Bitcoin or XRP on Monday's probability climb are now underwater. The split with Kalshi, which held higher odds before its own drop, invites arbitrage that may fail on differing settlement criteria.
For the platforms, the venue that settles closest to actual Senate outcome gains authority for future legislative markets. The linkage between political contracts and asset prices is a new kind of systemic attention that Polymarket did not have a year ago. Anyone holding through the cloture vote faces asymmetric downside if the 60-vote threshold fails.
Joins a second straight day of sharp Clarity Act repricing on Polymarket after yesterday's collapse to 19%, with Kalshi's parallel contract also whipsawing.