Robinhood event contracts revenue tops crypto and equities in record Q2
Robinhood generated $156 million from event contracts in Q2 2026, surpassing both its $100 million in crypto trading revenue and its $129 million in equities revenue. The milestone marks the first quarter that prediction markets outpaced both legacy segments at the platform. CEO Tenev said retail trading activity exceeded GameStop-era levels and pushed back against gambling criticism of the product category. The results drove record quarterly revenue of $1.31 billion and a 48% jump in profits.
The revenue flip makes prediction markets Robinhood's core business, not a side experiment. Management must now protect that $156 million run rate while regulators and lawmakers debate whether event contracts are gambling or derivatives. Tenev's public rejection of the gambling label signals an offensive strategy: frame the product as financial innovation before Congress or state attorneys general can frame it as wagering. That debate matters because a gambling classification would trigger state-by-state licensing costs and advertising bans that crypto never faced.
Robinhood's supplier mix — routing through Kalshi and its Rothera joint venture — gives it leverage to negotiate terms, but also creates dependency on partners facing their own margin pressure. The platform's next move on vertical integration, whether building more in-house or deepening the Kalshi relationship, will set the template for how brokerages source prediction markets. Analysts who forecast this revenue crossover now face a sharper question: can the segment keep growing if regulatory headwinds intensify?