World Cup drives record prediction market volumes as Congress weighs bans
World Cup betting drove record trading volumes on prediction market platforms in June and July. Kalshi and Polymarket both hit all-time highs, with Polymarket generating $3.9 billion in World Cup event contract volume. The surge comes as Congress weighs bipartisan legislation to ban sports event contracts on CFTC-registered platforms, and as the CFTC proposes stricter public-interest tests on such contracts. The Internal Revenue Service has not clarified how prediction market winnings are taxed, though Kalshi argues its contracts should qualify as regulated futures.
The volume surge turns Kalshi and Polymarket from niche venues into political targets with hard numbers attached. Congress now has concrete data to cite as it weighs a bipartisan Senate bill to ban sports event contracts on CFTC-registered platforms. Kalshi is already stretched across state fights in New York, Washington, Michigan, Illinois, and New Mexico, plus a Second Circuit appeal.
A federal ban would strip the core sports vertical nationwide without waiting for courts. Polymarket faces identical exposure. Both platforms must now build credible self-regulation on insider surveillance and tax reporting before lawmakers act. The platform that moves first may shape any ban's final form or deflect it entirely.
The World Cup volume surge joins a second cluster tracking billions in Sunday final bets on Kalshi and Polymarket, cementing the tournament as the sector's first mainstream liquidity test and its largest political target.