Kalshi and Polymarket post record World Cup volumes as prediction markets surge
Kalshi and Polymarket both posted record trading volumes during the 2026 World Cup, with Polymarket's World Cup contracts reaching $3.9 billion. The tournament marked the first major global sporting event since prediction markets surged in popularity as a sports betting alternative. A third platform, Rothera, handled significant volume during the period. CoinDesk claimed prediction markets generated $50 billion overall and surpassed traditional sportsbooks in volume, though that aggregate figure lacks verification across sources.
Polymarket's multi-billion World Cup haul gives scale to the threat Congress is already targeting. The bipartisan Senate bill seeking a federal sports contract ban now has live ammunition: these platforms processed sportsbook-scale volume without paying state licensing fees or taking the regulatory burden state books carry. That cost advantage is exactly what drew the legislation. Kalshi's advertising campaign positioning itself as a sportsbook alternative sharpens the case further.
For traders, the window may be closing; a federal ban would eliminate the core differentiation CFTC registration currently provides. The platforms that self-regulate first — on topics from insider trading to tax reporting — will have the best shot at deflecting the blow or shaping its final form. DraftKings' new DKeX exchange and Robinhood's Rothera affiliate are watching the same political signals, because a ban hits every CFTC-registered venue equally.