Nine Democratic senators press CFTC to halt wildfire prediction markets
Nine Democratic senators led by Merkley demanded Monday that the CFTC take action against prediction markets offering event contracts on wildfires. The letter argues the contracts let individuals bet on natural disasters while communities face active harm from wildfires burning in Oregon and across the US. The CFTC did not immediately respond to requests for comment. Polymarket, named in coverage, also did not respond.
The wildfire letter adds a new moral-hazard front to the CFTC's already crowded docket. The agency must now weigh disaster-event bans while defending its Rule 40.11 proposal against tribal, state, and sports-league opponents. For Polymarket and Kalshi, the timing is punishing: any CFTC move to ban catastrophe contracts would come just as both platforms fight to keep sports event contracts alive under the same federal registration.
A wildfire restriction could set a precedent that extends to other disaster events — hurricanes, floods, mass shootings — shrinking the addressable market for both operators. Congress is watching the CFTC's response; a perceived failure to act would fuel the Schiff-Curtis bill to ban sports event contracts nationally. Platforms must now model revenue loss across multiple verticals simultaneously, not just defend the sports lane.
This is the third CFTC-focused congressional push in two days to add federal pressure beyond the agency's pending Rule 40.11 public-interest framework, which already faces tribal and state-court flanking actions.