Nine senators press regulators to ban wildfire prediction markets
Nine U.S. senators led by Alex Padilla and Adam Schiff are calling for regulators to restrict or ban prediction market contracts tied to wildfire outcomes. The group warns that disaster-event markets could create financial incentives for arson or sabotage. The demand adds a new category to congressional pressure on the CFTC, which has already faced calls to limit sports-related event contracts. The sources did not specify which regulator the senators targeted or detail any formal rule already in effect.
The wildfire demand tests whether disaster events become the next contract category the CFTC bars. For Kalshi and Polymarket, each new category that lawmakers petition to restrict narrows the permissible scope of event contracts regardless of whether they ever listed those markets. The CFTC now faces parallel congressional pressure on sports gambling odds and natural disasters.
Platforms must monitor a widening list of contract types that draw federal scrutiny. Traders face uncertainty about which markets remain viable as the agency's tolerance tightens. A CFTC decision to act on wildfire contracts would signal that public-interest concerns can override platform discretion even without a court order.
The wildfire push joins sports gambling odds as the second category lawmakers have pressed the CFTC to bar in under a week, after the agency's warning on gambling odds drew NFL and Congressional fire.