Robinhood prediction market revenue expected to eclipse crypto in second quarter
Robinhood's prediction market revenue is projected to surpass its crypto revenue in the second quarter, according to a Foresight News report cited by Artemis. Retail traders who previously used the brokerage for commission-free stock and crypto trading are increasingly migrating to event contracts. The projection arrives without specific revenue figures, executive quotes, or timeline details in the available reporting, but aligns with broader signals that Robinhood's event-contract business is accelerating. The company's May 2026 volume reached 16 billion contracts through the Rothera clearing platform, positioning it as Kalshi's biggest competitor among CFTC-registered venues.
Robinhood must now prove the prediction market segment can carry the brokerage's growth story, or risk a credibility gap if the unspecific Q2 projection fails to materialize while Kalshi and Schwab's Cboe-backed suite compete directly for retail event-contract flow.
The revenue projection builds on a Bernstein analyst's $586 million forecast for Robinhood prediction markets in 2026, as the brokerage's event-contract volume and Rothera clearing infrastructure approach parity with Kalshi's retail pipeline.