Robinhood prediction market revenue set to surpass crypto in second quarter
Robinhood's prediction-market revenue is projected to surpass its crypto revenue in the second quarter of 2026, according to a Foresight News report cited by Artemis. The company's event-contracts business is accelerating, with September revenue pacing above a $200 million annualized rate. The growth reflects surging retail trader migration from stocks and crypto into event contracts on the platform. Robinhood reported strong quarterly results with growth across equities, options, and event contracts as it navigates pattern day trading rule changes and broader expansion efforts.
The revenue crossover transforms Robinhood from a crypto and equity app into a prediction-markets native venue with its own CFTC-registered exchange infrastructure. For Kalshi, the stakes are structural: Robinhood's Rothera platform has already displaced the revenue-sharing arrangement where each party earned 1 cent per contract, and Kalshi must now replace that lost retail flow with institutional volume or new partnerships.
The $200 million annualized pace gives Robinhood the capital to outspend dedicated prediction-market rivals on marketing, market-maker incentives, and product expansion just as DRW, Wintermute, and IMC are building liquidity desks for the sector. Platforms without a built-in brokerage audience face a steeper user-acquisition curve, and the first operator to lose market-maker support to Robinhood's larger order book will find spreads widening at the worst possible moment.