Donald Trump News & Prediction Market Coverage
Track the latest Donald Trump news across prediction markets. Prediction News is following 64 active Donald Trump stories across regulation, legal action, market moves, and platform developments, each clustered from original reporting and summarized for operators, traders, and regulators.
Latest News
Utah files felony criminal charges against Kalshi co-founders Mansour and Lopes Lara
LegalCFTC issues twin proposals classifying event contracts as swaps
TradingKalshi Texas Senate market crosses $35M as Talarico trades at 66%
TradingPolymarket traders price S&P 500 direction as oil fears ease
TradingKalshi prices Republican Congress hold at 9% ahead of midterms
TradingAnna Kelly emerges as Kalshi favorite for White House press secretary role
TradingKalshi and Polymarket record $53 billion combined volume in July
TradingKalshi pushes Acton to 81% in Ohio governor market as Ramaswamy hits new low
OpinionBloomberg video frames prediction markets as poll successors after Kalshi 2024 court win
LegalKalshi probes insider trading on Trump's press secretary pick
LegalNFL urges Supreme Court to let states regulate prediction markets as gambling
TradingKalshi and Polymarket list tenure contracts on Trump press secretary Zacharia
TradingKalshi and Polymarket diverge sharply on Guilfoyle exit odds
TradingNobel economics prize goes to Hall and Woodford, not Polymarket favorite Pakes
LegalKalshi probes suspicious bets on Trump pick for White House press secretary
TradingKalshi traders bet gas stays above $4 through Election Day despite Trump Iran pledge
TradingPolymarket saw Iran war bet spike an hour before U.S. strikes began
OpinionMormon leader calls prediction markets gambling, diverging from Trump stance
TradingKalshi traders price 66% odds Trump is impeached before 2028
OpinionBaltimore Sun and The Derrick editorials question Trump administration's prediction market support
TradingPolymarket traders split on Trump announcing AI renaming by October 1
TradingKalshi traders briefly favor Carney for Nobel Peace Prize over Trump
TradingKalshi and Polymarket traders slash Paxton's Texas Senate odds after leaked audio
TradingPolymarket odds price WTI oil at 67.5% to hit $95
LegalKalshi asks Trump administration to help attract more big bettors
DataPrediction markets outperformed preelection polls in 2024 presidential race
TradingPolymarket prices Trump-Xi handshake odds at 50%
TradingKalshi traders price 62% odds Trump criticizes Fed chair Warsh after rate hike
TradingKalshi Fed hike odds hit 88% as Polymarket holds $50M on no change
TradingPolymarket Fed hike odds reach 93% ahead of September 16 decision
OpinionOpinion: Trump family ties to prediction markets will draw IRS scrutiny
TradingMamdani leads Polymarket odds for 2026 TIME Person of the Year
LegalKalshi issues first lifetime ban to George Santos over State of the Union bets
TradingTexas Senate race hits $10.6M on Kalshi as platforms split on Paxton-Talarico
TradingPolymarket S&P 500 daily contract shows first bearish lean as Fed repricing accelerates
LegalCFTC fines former White House teleprompter operator $172,000 for Kalshi insider trades
TradingHouse Speaker Johnson claims foreign bettors skewing prediction markets toward Democrats
GlobalSouth Korea's KCSC orders ISP block on Polymarket over gambling claims
OpinionChris Christie predicts Supreme Court fight over U.S. prediction markets
TradingPolymarket and Kalshi traders price Trump behind rivals for Time Person of the Year
TradingPolymarket reprices Trump-Putin meeting odds after Kremlin China comment
TradingTrump-backed Mazzei wins Oklahoma runoff after prediction markets misread first round
TradingScaramucci says Trump will 'go to TACO' on Canada as Polymarket odds hit 8%
TradingPolymarket traders price Trump House impeachment odds at 68%
TradingGraham Nordone's South Carolina Senate primary odds fall to 67% after debate stumble
TradingKalshi lists 31-word Trump NASA speech market as eight-model panel splits on pricing
TradingJennings tops Kalshi press secretary market as Habba rules herself out
LegalTrump hosts crypto executives at White House, prediction markets excluded
TradingTrump praises prediction markets as researchers flag $8M in suspicious military bets
TradingPolymarket Clarity Act odds sink to 20% as Trump crypto agenda stalls
Frequently Asked Questions
What prediction markets are there on Donald Trump?
Polymarket and Kalshi run hundreds of markets on Trump-related events including policy outcomes, endorsements, diplomatic deals, and primary election results.
How do Trump's endorsements affect prediction markets?
Endorsements have moved implied probabilities in Senate runoff markets on Kalshi and Polymarket, with drops observed in some backed candidates despite support.
What is Trump's position on prediction markets regulation?
Trump has stated it is critically important for the CFTC to have exclusive authority over prediction markets and that platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket will thrive under federal rules.
Does Trump comment on prediction market disputes?
Trump has weighed in on CFTC-state conflicts over event contract oversight and on specific markets such as the Iran deal resolution on Polymarket.
Are there Trump-related markets on Polymarket and Kalshi?
Yes, both platforms host active Trump-tagged markets on elections, policy, and news events, with Polymarket showing dedicated Trump prediction sections.