Kalshi traders narrow Trump and Mamdani odds for Person of the Year
Kalshi traders have nearly evened the odds between Donald Trump and Mamdani for Time's Person of the Year, with Pope Leo XIV also within striking distance of the frontrunner position. The pricing shift reflects active trading on the CFTC-regulated platform ahead of the annual magazine selection, published Thursday, June 25. Separately, Kalshi has listed a new market on President Trump's approval rating as of July 3, 2026, referencing RealClearPolitics polling data. The approval-rating contract went live Friday, June 26. Both markets are open for direct trading, with the Person of the Year contract showing sustained user engagement on a non-sports cultural event.
Kalshi's political and cultural markets now trade without disclosed volume or open interest, so operators cannot tell whether these price movements reflect liquid conviction or thin-market drift. The same opacity that undermines Vance's 42% in the 2028 Republican nomination market now shadows every new political contract Kalshi lists.
Joins a run of recent Kalshi political markets tracked by this newsroom on Vance's 2028 odds and Mamdani's down-ballot pricing, with each new contract adding to the platform's push to make event contracts a mainstream political signal source.