House Republican bill would ban lawmakers and families from prediction markets
Rep. Bryan Steil introduced legislation on Thursday, June 18 that would bar House members, their spouses, and dependent children from wagering on prediction markets. The bill extends trading restrictions already applied to stock trading into the prediction-market space, targeting insider-trading concerns as elected officials gain access to non-public information that could move event-contract prices. Violators must pay a fine equal to $2,000 or 10% of the prohibited transaction value (whichever is greater) plus the net gain from the transaction. The measure did not specifically bar members of Congress from making sports bets, but it did prohibit policy wagers. The bill would not apply to White House officials.
Kalshi and Polymarket would lose their highest-profile organic user segment if congressional accounts are forced to close, stripping both platforms of the political insider flow that drives liquidity on Capitol Hill-adjacent contracts. The ban would also pressure competing platforms to build real-time surveillance systems capable of flagging elected-official trades before regulators demand them.