Kalshi prices in first Fed hike odds before 2027 after Warsh holds steady
Kalshi traders have repriced Federal Reserve interest-rate expectations following chair Kevin Warsh's first press conference, with the platform now showing greater than 50% odds of a rate hike before 2027. The shift came after Warsh held rates steady at his inaugural Wednesday FOMC meeting, which produced a unanimous decision after April's divided vote. While the June decision itself had been overwhelmingly priced in on both Kalshi and Polymarket, Warsh's hawkish signals moved year-end hike expectations meaningfully. Crypto-focused prediction markets were reportedly pricing low odds of a July hike, though specific probability figures were not available.
The repricing gives Kalshi a live macro contract to quote against as DRW, Wintermute, and IMC build out dedicated prediction-market desks. Sustained institutional flow here would validate Kalshi versus Eurodollar futures just as Robinhood's competing Rothera test launches.