Kalshi traders price 69% odds bitcoin hits $50,000 before $100,000
Kalshi prediction-market traders are pricing a 69% probability that bitcoin falls to $50,000 before it reaches $100,000, according to Pluang.com. The contract, published June 12, 2026, reflects sharply bearish sentiment on the CFTC-regulated platform. U.today reported the same directional tilt without specifying exact odds. Neither source provided dollar volume or competing market prices. The pricing extends a recent pattern of Kalshi crypto contracts reflecting downside bias, following a related market that raised below-$50K odds to 50% roughly one week prior. No contract expiration details or participant counts were disclosed.
The bearish pricing gives institutional desks at DRW, Wintermute, and IMC a regulated sentiment benchmark that crypto perpetuals lack. If Robinhood's Rothera captures this flow, Kalshi loses volume that underpins its newly approved Bitcoin perpetual futures.
Robinhood has now launched competing crypto prediction contracts across three venues — its own Rothera, Kalshi, and ForecastEx — and is also routing some World Cup contracts away from Kalshi while keeping others, pressuring Kalshi's retail distribution on multiple fronts at once.