Kalshi traders raise Bitcoin below-$50K odds to 50% as spot demand hits January lows
Kalshi prediction-market traders are pricing a 40% probability that Bitcoin falls below $50,000 before year-end, according to data cited by U.today on May 23, with Pluang.com noting the same 40% figure on May 23 after Bitcoin dropped below $75,000. A separate Pluang report on May 27 pushed the probability to 50%. Other Kalshi forecasts flagged by Intellectia.ai and Pluang.com point to Bitcoin revisiting the $54,000 support level by year-end, reflecting weak institutional demand for spot Bitcoin that has dropped to its lowest level since January. The pricing reflects growing bearish sentiment and downside expectations following recent price weakness, though no source provided details on contract terms, open interest, or directional moves from prior pricing levels.
Polymarket already lost its crypto volume lead to Kalshi this week. Any sustained divergence in their Bitcoin probability readings will determine which platform institutional traders treat as the definitive sentiment gauge for crypto threshold events.
Kalshi's crypto pricing momentum joins its record $454M crypto volume week and direct macro-contract competition with Polymarket, making Bitcoin threshold contracts the third front where the two platforms are now locked in parallel market runs.