Kalshi traders raise Bitcoin below-$50K odds to 50% as spot demand hits January lows
Kalshi traders have ratcheted up Bitcoin downside forecasts across multiple price-level contracts in early June, reflecting deepening bearish sentiment as spot demand weakens. By June 6, Kalshi markets priced a 56% chance of Bitcoin falling below $45,000 and 42% odds of dropping below $40,000, while earlier forecasts saw traders calling a $43,000 bottom, according to the platform's X posts. A separate year-end contract on Kalshi showed 50% odds of Bitcoin below $50,000, up from 40% in late May. Polymarket traders simultaneously priced 62% probability that Bitcoin drops below $60,000 during June. Bitcoin traded near $63,826 on June 5, with the prediction-market repricing following a slide that pushed the cryptocurrency below $65,000.
Kalshi's CFTC-regulated Bitcoin contracts are now pricing sharper downside probabilities than at any point in May, giving institutional desks at DRW, Wintermute, and IMC a sentiment signal with regulatory pedigree that crypto perpetuals lack.
If the bearish repositioning deepens, these market makers can flow liquidity from traditional derivatives infrastructure directly into event-contract markets.
Institutional market makers including DRW, Wintermute, and IMC have opened dedicated prediction-market desks on Kalshi and Polymarket, giving Wall Street-grade market-making infrastructure a foothold in event-contract liquidity for the first time.