Polymarket lists five-minute Bitcoin direction contract as price markets reprice sharply
Polymarket listed a five-minute Bitcoin direction market titled 'BTC Up or Down 5m' by May 26 and an hourly BTC up-or-down product by June 3, joining its existing slate of daily and monthly Bitcoin price prediction contracts. Traders have repriced multiple Bitcoin level contracts sharply in recent sessions: the $100,000 year-end probability fell to 33% by May 31 from 49% on May 10, while odds for Bitcoin hitting $62,000 on June 7 jumped 15 percentage points on June 7 itself. A separate market on whether Michael Saylor's Strategy would sell Bitcoin before year-end saw odds surge on May 29 after the firm moved $30 million of BTC to Coinbase. The Platform's June-dated price-target markets, including a contract on whether Bitcoin would surpass $68,000 by June 3, also saw significant odds shifts without disclosed figures.
Polymarket must now defend its crypto event-contract liquidity against Kalshi's CFTC-regulated perpetual futures and Robinhood's competing Rothera launch. Any failure to retain high-frequency Bitcoin speculation flow accelerates the shift of retail crypto derivatives volume back toward onshore regulated venues or offshore perpetual platforms.
Polymarket's expanding menu of short-dated Bitcoin direction contracts joins Kalshi's newly CFTC-approved bitcoin perpetual futures and Robinhood's competing Rothera launch in a race to capture retail crypto derivatives flow that had been drifting offshore.