Polymarket trader loses $4.2 million on World Cup as rival pockets $9 million
A single Polymarket trader lost $4.2 million on World Cup event contracts in less than 24 hours, according to Inc.com. Separately, a days-old Polymarket account turned roughly $4 million into $9 million by betting against Spain in a shocking World Cup draw, taking the other side of heavy money backing Spain as tournament favorite. The winning account was created shortly before the match, suggesting a potentially informed or opportunistic position rather than long-term platform activity. Inc.com frames the loss against expectations that the World Cup will become the biggest sports gambling event in history.
These outsized individual wins and losses keep Polymarket in headlines but do not prove the venue can convert viral one-off bets into repeatable liquidity that serious institutional desks demand. Kalshi traders place seven-figure World Cup bets as match volume climbs, signaling that institutional flow may be treating rival venues as primary.
Adds the second seven-figure individual loss in barely a day to Polymarket's World Cup ledger, after the $1 million Spain–Cabo Verde draw bust and alongside sustained six- and seven-figure flow on Kalshi and Robinhood's Rothera test.