Polymarket trader loses $4.2 million on World Cup as rival pockets $9 million
One Polymarket trader lost $4.2 million on World Cup event contracts in less than 24 hours after Spain was held to a draw by underdog Cabo Verde, according to Inc.com and Reddit posts. Separate reports put the same trader's loss near $1 million on the Spain-Cabo Verde match specifically, with a Nine.com.au report citing an AUD-denominated loss of over $1.5 million. On the other side of the trade, a days-old Polymarket account turned roughly $4 million into approximately $9 million by betting against Spain, CoinDesk reported. The 2026 World Cup has produced multiple dramatic market swings, and Bernstein projects continued growth in the event-contract segment.
Polymarket's viral headline bets keep it in retail view, but rival Kalshi is now drawing seven-figure World Cup flow too. The platform that proves it can convert spectacle into repeatable block-size liquidity will pull ahead as Robinhood's Rothera test and institutional market makers enter the same pool.
Sustained million-dollar World Cup swings are forcing each platform to prove it can convert headline bets into institutional-grade liquidity — a storyline that now spans Polymarket, Kalshi and Robinhood's Rothera test.