Kalshi prices Paxton at 94-96% in Texas GOP runoff after Trump endorsement
Kalshi traders are pricing Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton at 94-96% probability of defeating incumbent Senator John Cornyn in the state's Republican Senate runoff, with Yahoo and The Hill reporting 95% on May 24 and Kalshi's own news blog citing 96% on May 25. The surge followed President Donald Trump's endorsement of Paxton on May 20, which DeFi Rate reported had already sent his odds to 94%. The pricing divergence between platforms is pronounced: Ms.now noted Paxton at nearly 90% on Kalshi but 96% on Polymarket as of Sunday afternoon, May 24. Newsweek separately tracked Republicans at 55% to retain the Senate seat overall. The runoff continues a pattern from Louisiana and Kentucky primaries where Trump's backing sharply moved prediction markets.
Kalshi's official X account treats these price-point milestones as breaking news events, a content strategy that puts the CFTC-registered exchange in the crosshairs of an active House Oversight probe and parallel state enforcement proceedings. Any regulatory finding that live odds broadcasts constitute unlicensed wagering promotion could force immediate changes before the Texas runoff.
Kalshi now sits at the center of a congressional insider-trading probe and a CFTC-regulatory review while its odds broadcasts for GOP primaries are proving volatile enough to swing from near-certainty to near-zero within days of elections.