Ken Paxton News & Prediction Market Coverage
Track the latest Ken Paxton news across prediction markets. Prediction News is following 6 active Ken Paxton stories across regulation, legal action, market moves, and platform developments, each clustered from original reporting and summarized for operators, traders, and regulators.
Latest News
Kalshi and Polymarket odds flip to Talarico lead in Texas Senate race
TradingTexas Senate race hits $10.6M on Kalshi as platforms split on Paxton-Talarico
LegalFEC records show Kalshi and executives gave at least $22,600 to Texas politicians
LegalTexas AG Paxton sits out 44-state challenge to federal prediction market rules
TradingCook Political Report shifts Texas and Iowa Senate races to toss-ups
TradingKalshi odds flip back to Paxton leading Talarico 51% to 49% in Texas Senate race
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is Ken Paxton running against in the Texas Senate race?
Republican Ken Paxton faces Democrat James Talarico in the November 2026 general election for the U.S. Senate seat in Texas.
What are the current Kalshi odds on Paxton vs Talarico?
Kalshi prices the race at 51% for Paxton and 49% for Talarico as of the latest reported trading.
Did Ken Paxton win the Texas GOP Senate primary?
Yes, Paxton defeated incumbent Sen. John Cornyn in the Republican primary runoff on May 26, 2026.
How did prediction markets react to Trump's endorsement of Paxton?
Kalshi moved Paxton to 94-96% probability of winning the GOP nomination shortly after the May 20, 2025 endorsement.
Is there a Kalshi market on whether Paxton drops out of the Senate race?
Yes, Kalshi has offered contracts on whether Paxton would drop out before specific 2026 dates, resolving to No.