Talarico hits 66% on Kalshi, record highs on Polymarket as Paxton audio spreads
Kalshi traders pushed James Talarico's odds in the Texas Senate race to 66%. The move followed leaked audio in which Republican Ken Paxton vented about lacking control over his own campaign. Polymarket separately posted that Talarico had surged to record high odds while sidelined from campaigning with the flu. Both platforms now price Talarico as a clear favorite over Paxton. The shifts came roughly a week after synchronized moves on Paxton's odds had already slashed him to 38%.
Talarico's 66% on Kalshi and record Polymarket pricing cement the Texas Senate race as the cycle's sharpest prediction-market swing toward a Democratic pickup in Republican territory. For traders, the move burns the cross-platform arb that existed days ago when Kalshi and Polymarket diverged on this race; both venues now agree Talarico is favored, so the edge lies in timing whether Paxton can recover or whether polls follow the market lead.
Campaign donors and strategists face a signaled viability shift that reshapes resource allocation with settlement a month away. The compressed timeline between leak and repricing shows political event contracts now trade at equity-market velocity, leaving less room for fundamental traders to build size before the market digests news. Any October surprise that flips the race would test how quickly these venues can unwind concentrated positioning.
Kalshi and Polymarket have now repriced both sides of the Texas Senate race within days of each other, after earlier converging on House odds and the Senate majority while leaving presidential spreads alive.