Kalshi prices Talarico at 71% in Texas Senate race as early voting surges
Kalshi prediction-market traders have pushed Democrat James Talarico to 71% to win the Texas Senate race, his highest level yet on the platform. The pricing comes as Texas early voting breaks records. Republicans have outspent Democrats by roughly $141 million on advertising in the general election, according to Kalshi's own data review. Across platforms, Polymarket posted on X that Talarico has reached a new high at 70%, with its market pricing a 70% chance that Texas flips blue. The posts arrived three days before the 2026 midterm elections.
Talarico's 71% prints at the outer edge of Kalshi's political range, matching the compression zone that trapped Michigan buyers when El-Sayed touched 70%. That price leaves minimal directional edge for new entrants who arrive through the CBS News partnership without hedging tools. Any convergence against Talarico on election night will inflict mark-to-market losses on late buyers who treated the headline as certainty.
Kalshi, the credibility calculus is sharper than for Polymarket's international venue: a second high-profile miss after Michigan would cement the narrative that its politically visible markets are sentiment amplifiers, not forecasting instruments. State attorneys general already have Kalshi in their sights; a Texas pricing failure would hand them live ammunition. The platform's mainstream growth depends on these users surviving their first swing.
Talarico's 71% builds on a pattern across Kalshi's political book this month — Acton at 76% in Ohio, El-Sayed compressed at 70% in Michigan, and Peltola surging to 67% in Alaska — where scandal or advertising dynamics have pushed Senate pricing well above traditional forecasts.