Kalshi traders push Talarico to 99% on election eve in Texas Senate race
Kalshi traders priced Democrat James Talarico at 99% to win the 2026 Texas Senate race against Republican Ken Paxton on election eve, November 3. The projection marked a dramatic climb from 65% earlier November 3 and 71% as early voting results arrived. Kalshi's market crossed $35 million with Talarico at 66% seven days prior. The 99% close tested whether prediction-market pricing could diverge sharply from traditional polls yet maintain forecasting credibility.
Kalshi's 99% Talarico close joins Polymarket's 70% price three days earlier in a pattern of prediction-market divergence from traditional polls. For retail users arriving through media partnerships with Bloomberg and CBS News, these headline numbers carry authority without context. Late entrants face mark-to-market losses if polls prove more accurate than market sentiment.
State attorneys general in Ohio and Tennessee already cite pricing misses as evidence that event contracts amplify partisan sentiment rather than aggregate information. The Texas Senate result lands immediately, giving them a concrete example of extreme election-eve pricing. Kalshi's $1.48 billion midterm volume means more retail capital is exposed than any prior cycle. A wrong call arms regulators and punishes platform credibility together.