Trading
Midterm prediction market volume surges on gubernatorial races
Trading volume on midterm election prediction markets has surged, with Kalshi and Polymarket seeing significant activity. Almost half of total trading volume as of July 1 was directly related to gubernatorial races.
Why this matters?
Gubernatorial races driving nearly half of midterm volume shows state-level politics can match or exceed federal races as a liquidity driver, suggesting platforms should expand state-specific contract offerings beyond presidential cycles.
The bigger picture
Joins Kalshi and Polymarket's World Cup record and NYC mayor listings as the platforms' third major non-presidential volume spike this month, reinforcing that both venues now treat state and sports events as parallel liquidity drivers to federal races.
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