Allium report shows U.S. wallets lead Polymarket political trading despite access restrictions

For Polymarket, the Allium finding turns a compliance line into a live enforcement risk: on-chain proof that its largest political-trading cohort is violating stated access restrictions gives the CFTC concrete evidence that geoblocks are ineffective. That matters because the exchange's regulatory standing depends on demonstrating control over who trades what contracts, and a platform that cannot enforce its own prohibition list invites scrutiny of whether its surveillance systems match its designation order. For competitors like Kalshi, which operates under the same CFTC framework, the report raises the compliance bar for geographic screening industry-wide. The next CFTC examination cycle will likely test whether on-chain verification becomes the standard for proving — or disproving — that U.S. users are actually excluded.