Kalshi odds on Massie swing from 78% to 1% before Kentucky primary loss
Kalshi odds on Kentucky Representative Thomas Massie winning his Republican primary swung from 78% two weeks before the May 19 contest to 99% for his defeat by Election Day, according to Forbes. Massie, a long-standing incumbent, lost to challenger Ed Gallrein in the 4th District race. The prediction market drew millions of dollars in wagers, with users continuing to place bets even after polls closed on May 19, according to the Courier Journal. The contest tested former President Donald Trump's endorsement power within the Republican Party, following incumbent Senator Bill Cassidy's loss in Louisiana's Republican Senate primary the prior weekend.
Kalshi's official X account now treats price-point milestones as breaking news events. Any CFTC review of that practice could rewrite how regulated exchanges broadcast live odds, especially after this visible miss.
Becomes the second major Kalshi political-pricing reversal covered this week, after the platform's opposite odds on the same KY-04 race triggered arbitrage scrutiny against Polymarket.