Polymarket trader 'coldsway' loses $11.6 million on 2026 World Cup bets in 10 days
A Polymarket account known as 'coldsway' has lost $11.6 million betting on the 2026 FIFA World Cup over a 10-day span, with only four of 15 positions finishing in the money, according to Yahoo Finance. The losses came from chasing favored teams in the tournament's early stages, highlighting concentrated risk-taking on the crypto-native prediction market platform ahead of the tournament. Yellow.com characterized the account as a whale pursuing World Cup favorites.
The coldsway losses are a live data point in the liquidity-versus-marketing war between Polymarket and Kalshi. Polymarket, $11.6 million in realized whale losses in 10 days tests whether its recently deployed institutional market makers can absorb concentrated directional risk without blowing out spreads or spooking other large accounts. A single whale this deep underwater raises the question of whether the platform's book is deep enough to let similar-sized contrarian positions exit profitably. For traders sizing World Cup positions now, the case is a warning that favorite-chasing at million-dollar scale has already burned one account badly. For Kalshi, the incident feeds its argument that volume without execution-quality disclosure leaves whales exposed; Polymarket's response will shape whether this becomes a one-off cautionary tale or evidence that its liquidity narrative outran its infrastructure. The market's next whale exit will be watched as closely as the next whale entry.