Polymarket trader 'coldsway' loses $11.6 million on World Cup favorites in 10 days
A Polymarket account known as 'coldsway' lost $11.6 million betting on 2026 FIFA World Cup favorites over 10 days, with only four of 15 positions finishing profitably, according to Yahoo Finance and Yellow.com. The concentrated losses illustrate outsized risk-taking on the crypto-native platform ahead of and during the tournament. Separately, Polymarket user RJW1 purchased $178,000 in shares backing Spain against Portugal on July 6. 247wallst.com reported total World Cup betting volume on Polymarket reached $3.9 billion, with annualized revenue crossing $1 billion during the surge.
The coldsway wipeout tests whether Polymarket's liquidity providers can absorb concentrated whale losses without destabilizing neighboring markets. DRW, Wintermute, and IMC built desks for both Polymarket and Kalshi; a single $11.6 million account blowup that clears without contagion signals their risk models hold. For traders sizing million-dollar entries, coldsway's failed chase of favorites is a live data point on slippage in stressed exit conditions.
The flip side is regulatory: state attorneys general monitoring whether event contracts function as derivatives or gambling instruments can cite reckless retail-adjacent behavior as evidence of product unsoundness. Clean settlement keeps the NFL and Olympics on launch timelines. A cracked settlement or fraud finding shifts that timeline toward litigation and away from product expansion.