Apptopia: prediction markets gained World Cup users late as sportsbooks peaked early
Mobile analytics firm Apptopia found that sportsbook daily active users peaked on June 15 during the 2026 World Cup, while prediction-market platforms gained users later in the tournament. The analysis tracked DraftKings, Flutter, Caesars, MGM, Kalshi, and Polymarket. Kalshi's tournament winner market alone topped $1 billion in trading volume during the event. The report included demographic breakdowns for the tracked apps.
The divergent usage curves reshape how operators and investors value engagement quality versus volume headlines. For Kalshi and Polymarket, sustained late-tournament user growth suggests their platforms captured bettors who stayed for multiple matches and markets, not just opening-day novelty. Sportsbooks burned marketing dollars for a one-day June peak that faded.
The platforms now face a post-World Cup retention test: whether those late-arriving users convert to NFL, Olympics, and financial contracts when soccer ends. Kalshi's $1 billion tournament winner market proves the sports vertical works, but the DAU stickiness determines if prediction markets become habitual venues or seasonal spikes. Polymarket's comparable volume metrics set the competitive floor that both must clear to keep institutional market makers committed.
Kalshi and Polymarket's sustained user growth through the tournament final pairs with June's $45 billion volume surge to show prediction markets converting World Cup interest into durable engagement rather than the one-day spikes sportsbooks saw.