CNBC analysis finds most Polymarket contracts trade under $10,000
A CNBC analysis found roughly 70% of closed markets on Polymarket recorded under $10,000 in trading volume from 2021 through May 2026, with 45,000 markets showing zero volume. The analysis, drawing from Polymarket's Gamma API, indicates most prediction market contracts attract minimal participation. Thin trading leaves users exposed to volatility, wider costs, and potential bot activity, while liquidity remains concentrated in a small share of active markets.
For Polymarket, the 70% low-volume finding is a direct challenge to its institutional pitch at a moment when DRW, Wintermute, and IMC are building dedicated desks for the platform. Those market makers need depth across a broad range of contracts to justify their infrastructure spend; a sea of sub-$10,000 markets signals the opposite. The risk is segmentation: high-profile events like the World Cup or Swift-Kelce weddings absorb liquidity and attention, while everything else becomes a desert. Polymarket cannot seed participation in its long tail, it remains a venue for headline moments rather than a continuous trading surface. That distinction matters for valuation talks and for whether those institutional desks deepen their commitment or pull back to Kalshi's more diverse verticals.