Elon Musk News & Prediction Market Coverage
Track the latest Elon Musk news across prediction markets. Prediction News is following 12 active Elon Musk stories across regulation, legal action, market moves, and platform developments, each clustered from original reporting and summarized for operators, traders, and regulators.
Latest News
Zuckerberg directs Meta to build play-money prediction market app Arena
TradingKalshi traders price Zuckerberg at 32% to become next trillionaire
TradingKalshi traders price Mars, merger, and trillionaire odds on Musk and SpaceX
StocksPrediction markets see Musk at Nasdaq bell for SpaceX IPO
TradingKalshi and Polymarket traders push SpaceX-Tesla merger odds higher
TradingKalshi traders price Musk at 96% to become world's first trillionaire ahead of SpaceX IPO
TradingPolymarket lists second Musk tweet-count market after 19% activity jump on prior contract
TradingKalshi and Polymarket traders price Musk trillionaire odds above 90% on SpaceX IPO hopes
TradingKalshi traders price Musk at 95% odds of becoming trillionaire, 33% on Tesla-SpaceX merger
TradingPolymarket tweet-count markets on Musk draw over $3M in wagers
TradingMusk's OpenAI lawsuit odds slide 8 points after day one of testimony on Kalshi
TradingKalshi traders slash Musk's OpenAI win odds to 37% from 59% ahead of Monday ruling
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the odds Elon Musk becomes the world's first trillionaire?
Traders on Kalshi and Polymarket have priced the probability above 90% that Elon Musk reaches $1 trillion net worth before 2027, with Kalshi showing 96% odds and a separate contract at 24% for $2 trillion by the same date.
Will Elon Musk merge SpaceX and Tesla?
Traders on Kalshi and Polymarket have priced merger odds in a range including 49%, 51%, 52%, 61%, and 41% across various timeframes and outcomes, with activity rising ahead of SpaceX's public debut.
What prediction markets exist on Elon Musk's tweet count?
Polymarket has run weekly contracts tracking the number of Elon Musk's posts on X, including a June 9-16, 2026 market that followed a prior contract with a 19% activity jump.
What are the odds SpaceX reaches Mars by 2030?
Kalshi traders have priced the probability at 18% for SpaceX reaching Mars by 2030.
How does Elon Musk feature in prediction markets around SpaceX IPO?
Kalshi and Polymarket markets have priced Musk at the Nasdaq bell for the SpaceX IPO, post-IPO valuations around $1.77-1.8 trillion, and related trillionaire and merger outcomes.