Kalshi and Polymarket traders push SpaceX-Tesla merger odds higher
Traders on Kalshi and Polymarket are pushing odds higher on a potential merger between SpaceX and Tesla, the two largest companies controlled by Elon Musk. The Motley Fool reported June 8 that exact probabilities on the platforms include 51%, 61%, and 41% figures for various merger-related outcomes. Yahoo Finance, also June 8, noted rising trader interest and increasing bets that Musk could combine the companies. Seeking Alpha reported June 13 that traders increasingly view any merger as a longer-term possibility. The speculative activity comes as both platforms already run multiple correlated Musk-themed contracts, including trillionaire odds and SpaceX IPO pricing, without disclosed volume or open interest data.
DRW, Wintermute and IMC have built dedicated prediction market desks for Kalshi and Polymarket. Any institutional desk sizing merger or IPO exposure on Musk-themed contracts now routes through these four market makers, concentrating pricing power in firms the platforms cannot easily replace.
The Musk merger contracts join Polymarket's live SpaceX pricing and Kalshi's trillionaire markets as the third distinct Musk-themed vertical drawing institutional flow, with crypto-native market makers DRW, Wintermute and IMC building prediction market desks for Kalshi and Polymarket already positioned to capture the block-size orders.