Kalshi and Polymarket traders price Musk trillionaire odds above 90% on SpaceX IPO hopes
Prediction-market traders on Kalshi and Polymarket have priced the odds above 90% that Elon Musk will surpass $1 trillion in net worth before 2027, driven by anticipation of a SpaceX IPO. The Kalshi account tweeted on Friday, May 30 that its market showed a 90% probability of Musk becoming a trillionaire in 2025. Separately, Kalshi traders are pricing a 52% chance as of Sunday, May 31 that Musk will merge SpaceX with Tesla by May 2027, a potential $3.4 trillion deal. Benzinga reported additional Kalshi wagering on a $3.5 trillion Tesla-SpaceX megamerger tied to the SPCX IPO, SpaceX's planned public debut. No open interest, volume, or contract terms were disclosed for the trillionaire market.
Kalshi is drawing retail flow into correlated Musk-themed contracts without disclosed volume or open interest, making it impossible for traders to gauge whether these prices reflect liquid conviction or thin-tail speculation. Any trader sizing positions needs that opacity resolved before treating the 90% handle as actionable.
Brings the running tally of platform-specific Musk-linked contracts to at least six across Kalshi and Polymarket, after two net-worth markets and one Tesla-SpaceX merger contract last week, cementing Musk as the dominant single-name vertical in regulated event markets.