Kalshi traders price Musk at 95% odds of becoming trillionaire, 33% on Tesla-SpaceX merger
Kalshi traders are pricing a 33% probability that Elon Musk will merge Tesla and SpaceX before May 2027, according to a May 21 CNBC report, reflecting market skepticism despite building media speculation. Separately, Kalshi's official X account posted on May 23 that traders give Musk a 95% chance of becoming the world's first trillionaire, an all-time high for that contract. No trading volume or open-interest data was disclosed for the trillionaire contract. The two contracts join other Musk-linked markets on the platform, including a separate trillionaire contract that had traded at 87% odds earlier in May, and a 70% Tesla-SpaceX merger probability that circulated roughly six days prior.
Kalshi is now running three distinct Musk-linked contracts simultaneously — two on personal net worth and one on corporate merger odds. Any CFTC review of whether event markets have drifted too far from macro-economic outcomes will target these contracts first, not Kalshi's S&P 500 or Fed-rate markets.
Shows Kalshi's traders now price Musk-specific personal-wealth contracts at both 87% and 95%, alongside a 33% Tesla-SpaceX merger probability, as the platform runs parallel celebrity-net-worth and corporate-action contracts alongside its macro-political markets, extending the running storyline of Kalshi testing CFTC tolerance for non-economic event types.