Kalshi traders slash Musk's OpenAI win odds to 37% from 59% ahead of Monday ruling
Traders on Kalshi have slashed the odds of Elon Musk winning his lawsuit against OpenAI, with the contract price tumbling from roughly 59% to 37% ahead of an expected Monday morning ruling. The prediction market movement reflects growing skepticism toward Musk's legal challenge to the artificial intelligence company he co-founded. The sharp drop followed new court filings, though the specific contents of those filings were not detailed. The contract had stood at 58.9% before the decline, according to platform data. The case represents Musk's ongoing battle against the company, which has evolved from a nonprofit research lab into a closely watched AI powerhouse valued in the tens of billions.
Kalshi's OpenAI lawsuit contract is one of the platform's highest-profile legal-event markets, and a 22-point swing in a single weekend signals that informed traders are aggressively repricing based on sealed or late-breaking filings—suggesting the market maker may need to tighten circuit-breakers on litigation contracts that move faster than public disclosure allows.