Polymarket prices 49% odds XRP drops below $1 by end-November
XRP fell to roughly $1.08 in Sunday's marketwide sell-off, its lowest level since August, according to sources. On Polymarket, traders assigned roughly a 49-50% probability that the token would hit $1 during November. The pricing emerged as shorts added exposure at the $1.10 level, with two sources citing the 49% figure specifically and one citing 50%. The contract tracks whether XRP reaches the $1 threshold before month-end.
The 49% print puts XRP in a zone where prediction market pricing can directly feed market positioning, not just reflect it. Traders watching Polymarket now face a feedback loop: the odds themselves become a signal that spot and derivatives desks may trade around, especially with leverage concentrated near the $1 strike.
Kalshi and Robinhood lack the same density of crypto price-target contracts, so any rapid repricing here pools attention and order flow on Polymarket. The platform's CFTC license through QCX LLC means it clears these contracts domestically, capturing the full stack. For XRP holders, the 49% read is not abstract; it maps to real liquidation levels and options gamma, making the contract a direct input to spot-market stress.
Polymarket now runs XRP alongside Bitcoin and Ether contracts across multiple durations, joining its earlier 91% odds Ether hits $2,200 in November contract in a deepening crypto product stack that Kalshi and Robinhood have not yet matched.