Trading
Kalshi traders cut Anthropic IPO odds below 60%
Kalshi prediction-market traders have cut the odds of an Anthropic initial public offering this year to below 60%, down from nearly 60% previously. The repricing comes as the AI startup's listing prospects remain uncertain.
Why this matters?
Shows prediction markets pricing tech IPO risk in real time, a use case that could attract institutional hedgers to Kalshi's event-contract platform if the product category expands.
The bigger picture
Second repricing of Anthropic IPO odds across Kalshi and Polymarket this month, as the platforms' split-contract structure — Kalshi on timing, Polymarket on valuation — forces traders to build fragmented positions on the same private-company listing.