Polymarket contract prices 91% odds Ether hits $2,200 in November
A Polymarket contract tied to Ether reaching $2,200 in November priced at 91% probability on Nov. 6. The contract uses Binance's price feed for settlement. The reading follows a separate October Ether contract that expired days earlier. Polymarket has been expanding its crypto price offerings across multiple durations simultaneously. The high probability reflects trader confidence that Ether will hold above that threshold through month-end.
The 91% reading on the $2,200 strike, just $100 below the $2,300 contract that polled at 92% six days prior, shows crypto prediction markets are converging on a tight consensus band that treats recent price levels as durable. That clustering matters for Polymarket's product strategy: it now runs Ether contracts across five-minute, daily, weekly, and monthly durations, a density Kalshi and Robinhood cannot yet match.
For traders, the near-identical probabilities on adjacent strikes create arbitrage-like opportunities to compare time-decay assumptions across durations on the same platform. The real question is whether Polymarket can standardize one of these strikes into a recurring reference contract that locks in recurring volume, or whether fragmentation across durations keeps capital rotating rather than sticky. Kalshi and Polymarket's record $2.7 billion weekly crypto volume shows the prize for whichever venue solves that.