Polymarket and Kalshi traders cut odds of Anthropic and OpenAI IPOs after SpaceX listing
On Polymarket, the odds of an Anthropic IPO by Dec. 31, 2026 fell to 75% from 90% early Saturday, having dropped as low as 69%. The repricing follows the SpaceX IPO, which traders appear to be treating as a signal that major private tech companies may delay or avoid public listings. Kalshi also shows shifted odds on OpenAI going public, though specific figures were truncated in the available text.
Shows prediction markets are pricing tech IPO timing as a correlated risk factor rather than isolated events. A sustained repricing would signal that traders view the SpaceX listing as absorbing available capital or resetting valuation expectations for AI companies.
Joins five other active tech-contract markets on Kalshi and Polymarket this quarter — SpaceX valuation, SpaceX-Tesla merger, Anthropic IPO, Fable 5 return, and OpenAI IPO — as the two platforms become the default venue for pricing pre-liquidity corporate events.