Polymarket traders give SpaceX 61% odds of $2T to $2.5T valuation on debut
Polymarket traders are pricing a 61% probability that SpaceX will close its first trading day with a market capitalization between $2 trillion and $2.5 trillion, according to a June 12 Wall Street Journal report. The contracts have generated several million dollars in trading volume on the platform, as retail traders seek exposure to the private space company's highly anticipated public debut. Separately, Polymarket traders are pricing SpaceX's opening share price at $174, implying a 29% opening pop, according to posts from the Polymarket Money account on X. Crypto perpetual futures are pricing a smaller 22% first-day gain, creating a potential tradeable spread between the two markets for retail participants, according to Benzinga.
Several million dollars in SpaceX contract volume tests whether prediction markets can serve as the primary price-discovery venue for pre-IPO speculation. If Polymarket's closing-odds line converges with SpaceX's actual market cap, institutional desks will treat event contracts as benchmark inputs for illiquid equity bets.