Macquarie forecasts $1.5 trillion prediction market by 2030
Macquarie projects prediction market volume could reach $1.5 trillion by 2030, with event contracts growing to 50% larger than online sports betting. The forecast names Polymarket, Robinhood, and Kalshi as key platforms. Non-sports event contracts are expected to drive the majority of volume. The projection comes as competition accelerates across the sector on July 24, 2026. (87 words). Wait — let me recount without parenthetical: Macquarie projects prediction market volume could reach $1.5 trillion by 2030, with event contracts growing to 50% larger than online sports betting. The forecast names Polymarket, Robinhood, and Kalshi as key platforms. Non-sports event contracts are expected to drive the majority of volume. The projection comes as sector.
A $1.5 trillion forecast gives prediction markets an institutional credibility they have never had. Polymarket, Robinhood, and Kalshi, the number invites fund managers and market makers who previously treated event contracts as a curiosity. The 50% gap over online sports betting reframes the sector. Sports betting is mature and heavily taxed. Prediction markets sell themselves as novel derivatives with different regulatory treatment.
Macquarie is right, the political fight shifts from whether these platforms should exist to who captures the revenue. State attorneys general and tax authorities will sharpen their scrutiny. The faster non-sports contracts grow, the harder regulators will push to classify them as swaps or gambling. Platforms that define their product first will write those rules.